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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 022348
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
805 PM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  
THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND THE LOWER PRESSURES OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA WILL GENERATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE 
COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W 
STARTING BY 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 10 
TO 15 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE W AFRICAN COAST EARLIER THIS 
MORNING...WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N20W TO 07N20W. SSMI TPW 
IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN A BULGE OF MODERATE 
MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG 11N BETWEEN 18W-
22W. METEOSAT PSEUDO-NATURAL AND SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW 
SAHARAN DUST ENGULFING THE WAVE...THUS LIMITING SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 13N38W TO 07N38W...MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 
KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF 
MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT. ISOLATED LIGHT TO 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 10N BETWEEN 37W-39W. 

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS FARTHER W WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
13N50W TO 07N51W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SAHARAN DUST PREVAILS 
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT HINDERING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 18N60W TO 09N61W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY 
SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A SAHARAN 
AIRMASS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...NO CONVECTION IS 
RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 19N82W TO 10N83W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. 
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS MAINLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE 
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR 
CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W THROUGH 09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS FROM 09N22W TO 08N38W THEN RESUMES W OF 
A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N40W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO 
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 30W-37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EXTENDS 
ITS RIDGE W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WHERE IT IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N86W. 
WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
ACROSS THE AREA. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA AND 
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...AND THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS S 
OF 24N AND E OF 84W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE 
SURFACE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF 
COLOMBIA STARTING 0600 UTC FRIDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING 
FROM 10 TO 15 FT. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE 
BASIN...FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. 
A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 
REACHING THE EPAC...IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING 
THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH CONTINUES TO  
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS 
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT 
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 16N BETWEEN 79W-79W. OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE MOVING W. 
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                               

A SAHARAN DRY AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA WHERE DUST IS BEING REPORTED. 
FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THIS LARGE 
DRY AND DUSTY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTING 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS MAINLY W OF 76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N49W. 
WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE 
TROPICAL WAVES...PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Jul-2015 23:48:44 UTC