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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221756
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 22/1800 UTC IS IN THE 
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.3N 92.1W. 
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 96 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMPECHE  
MEXICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING E AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC 
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC 
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO 
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES 
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING 
FLASH FLOODS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-24N 
BETWEEN 89W-93W.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N22W TO 6N23W MOVING W AT 15 KT.  
THE WAVE IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE S OF 13N. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 20W-30W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N36W TO 4N37W MOVING W AT 15 KT.  
THE WAVE IS ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE S OF 14N. THE WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N55W TO 7N60W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS 
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 55W-59W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 11N16W AND CONTINUES TO 11N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS BETWEEN 
TROPICAL WAVES FROM 9N25W TO 7N30W TO 9N35...AND FROM 7N40W TO 
5N48W TO 10N56W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE 
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 40W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

T.D. NINE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N81W TO THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W TO S TEXAS AT 26N97W. A 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS N FLORIDA FROM 30N81W TO 30N88W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE FRONTS. THE WARM SECTOR 
OVER THE SE GULF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE 
SE GULF...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 80W-89W. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND 
THE NW GULF W N OF 90W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. 
OF NOTE AN EMBEDDED MIDLEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NOTED OVER THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N86W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
CONVECTION TO PERSIST AND SPREAD E OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ALSO EXPECT THE REINFORCING 
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH 
CENTRAL GULF AND THEN STALL. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W-87W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-18N 
BETWEEN 76W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W.  
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W 
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO 
THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                  

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION WILL BE E OF THE 
ISLAND HOWEVER...OVER CUBA AND SURROUNDING WATERS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT 
IS FURTHER N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 
63W-74W. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N55W 
MOVING N AT 5-10 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO THE 
LOW CENTER TO 23N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E 
OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 43W-54W. A 1007 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 34N30W NEARLY 
STATIONARY. A SURFACE TROUGH  EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 
28N30W TO 23N34W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N53W ENHANCING CONVECTION. A VERY LARGE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N31W. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC REINFORCING 
COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 
CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Oct-2014 17:56:24 UTC