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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011804
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST SUN FEB 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...W TO NW GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW N ATLC AND 
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N WITHIN 480 NM W OF A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING FROM 31N49W TO 21N65W TO 22N78W. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS 
REGION RANGE FROM 12 TO 22 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY 
MORNING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST N OF 30N W OF 77W AHEAD OF A 
COLD FRONT EMERGING FROM THE SE U.S. COAST. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS 
REGION WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE THE 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY 
MONDAY MORNING ON THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W 
AND 78W. SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS REGION WILL RANGE FROM 11 TO 16 FT. 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY MORNING...THEN RESUME 
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. 

GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY 
AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN GULF FROM 21N TO 24N W OF 96W AND A 
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 28N83W TO 18N93W. WINDS ARE FORECAST 
TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE MONDAY NIGHT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
INFORMATION. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 01N28W TO 02N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OFF THE SE 
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC 
WATERS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PUSHES 
FORWARD A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WITH TAIL 
EXTENDING ALONG NORTHERN CUBA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FROM 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE RIDGE SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG 23N81W NW 
TO 27N86W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W...THEN ALONG THE TEXAS 
COASTLINE. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SE TO S FLOW IN THE WESTERN GULF IS ADVECTING 
SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN THAT SUPPORTS FOG OVER THE 
NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 88W...ALSO SHOWN IN THE GOES-R PROVING 
GROUND IFR AND LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS. A COLD FRONT WILL 
ENTER THE NW GULF MONDAY MORNING AND GALE WINDS WILL DEVELOP 
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN HINDERING THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE 
OVER NORTHERN S AMERICA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS OF 15 
TO 20 KT OVER THE BASIN...INCREASING TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ALONG THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 
COLD FRONT JUST N OF HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. 
THIS MOIST AIRMASS WILL LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY 
TUESDAY MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO AND 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE 
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THEN WILL DISSIPATE NE OF THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THAT 
IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER E CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA... 

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT JUST N OF 
HISPANIOLA IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOIST 
AIRMASS WILL LINGER IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY 
MORNING...THUS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OFF THE SE 
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC 
WATERS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE PUSHES 
FORWARD A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS ALONG 30N49W 
SW TO 20N72W WITH TAIL EXTENDING ALONG NORTHERN CUBA. THE FRONT 
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ALSO 
SUPPORTS A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 30N48W TO 18N60W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM AHEAD 
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN 
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE 
U.S. MONDAY MORNING AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP 
AHEAD OF IT OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. SEE THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS