| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 012331
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 PM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01S14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 04S24W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
05S38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-03N BETWEEN 10W-
29W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...           

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA IN CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND EXTENDS N ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF SUPPORTING 
SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS 
ACROSS CENTRAL US AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
GULF. TO THE W...A 1021 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N96W. 
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO THE SW ACROSS THE NW 
GULF REACHING NE MEXICO. A WARM FRONT IS FROM THE LOW TO THE E 
ALONG THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. FROM THAT POINT...THE 
FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING FROM 29N90W TO 29N83W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ACROSS THE W GULF FROM THE LOW CENTER 
NEAR 28N96W TO 19N94W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE 
TROUGH. A SOUTH-EASTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS 
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE 
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER THE NW GULF AND ALONG THE 
COAST FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF TO THE W FL PANHANDLE AS THE 
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...    

A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
SUPPORTING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS THE WHOLE BASIN. 
PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 
SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM 16N88W TO 11N62W AFFECTING THE EASTERN 
HALF OF THE BASIN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO... 
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OFF 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S 
CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE 
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE 
WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT 
WATERS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N80W TO 
31N80W. FROM THIS LAST POINT...THE BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS INTO A 
SURFACE TROUGH AND EXTENDS N REACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. 
TO THE E...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 29N67W TO 
31N62W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF THIS BOUNDARY 
MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 47W-58W. FARTHER EAST...A 1033 MB HIGH 
CENTERED S OF THE AZORES PREVAILS EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. GENTLE TO MODERATE 
EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE 
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A COLD FRONT MOVING E ENHANCING 
CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA