000
AXNT20 KNHC 022304 CCA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri May 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 04N20W to 03N30W. The ITCZ extends from 03N30W to 01N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is active from 03N to 07N between
15W and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data
indicate fresh SE winds across the western Gulf, between high 
pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure over 
Mexico. Concurrent altimeter data along with buoy data indicate
combined seas are 5 to 7 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate E to
SE winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere, except for light
breezes and slight seas over the far northeast Gulf. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are starting to diminish off the
central Texas coast.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high 
pressure over Florida and the eastern Gulf, and relatively lower 
pressures over the rest of the Gulf and in Mexico will support 
mostly fresh southeast winds over the western and central Gulf 
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at 
night for the next few days near the northern and western Yucatan
Peninsula due to local effects induced by a local trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper trough reaches north of the Caribbean from over 
Bermuda through the northern Bahamas. This is supporting a
surface trough north of Haiti, which in turn is disrupting the
normal subtropical ridge that is resident to the north of the
Caribbean. This is resulting in relatively light winds and modest
seas across western half of the basin. Moderate to fresh SE winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere over the eastern
Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft associated with the upper trough
is also supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
Windward Passage, eastern Cuba, and the higher terrain of Haiti
and the Dominican Republic. Refer to local weather advisories for
information regarding any heavy rainfall or related flooding.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected
in the lee of Cuba, northwestern Caribbean and just in the 
Windward Passage tonight and Fri night and in the Windward 
Passage Sat night and Sun night. Gentle to moderate trade winds 
are expected over the area through the forecast period, except 
for mostly fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean. The 
interaction between a trough along 80W/81W south of 20N with the 
base of a western Atlantic upper-level trough that extends into 
the western Caribbean has resulted in the development of 
scattered showers and thunderstorms from the eastern tip of Cuba 
to the Windward Passage. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are over the waters between eastern Cuba and 
Jamaica. All of this activity is translating east-northeastward. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A sharp upper trough reaches north of the Caribbean from over 
Bermuda through the northern Bahamas. This is supporting a
surface trough along roughly 72W south of 27N. Recent
scatterometer satellite data showed fresh SE winds south of 25N
and east of the southern Bahamas and near the approaches to the 
Windward Passage, between the surface trough and higher pressure 
to the northeast of the region. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft in
open waters east of the southern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate 
winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted farther north, west of 55W. 
Divergent flow aloft associated with the upper trough is 
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto 
Rico from 20N to 25N between 60W and 70W.

Farther east, a stationary front extends from 30N37W to 25N60W. 
An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to 
fresh SW winds within 90 nm east of the front, north of 28N. 
Elsewhere between 35W and 55W, gentle to moderate winds are noted
north of 20N with 5 to 8 ft combined seas in NW to N swell, and 
moderate to fresh trade winds farther south with 5 to 7 ft 
combined seas. East of 35W, fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 8 
ft seas are noted over the eastern Atlantic south of 20N and east
of 30W. as well as north of 20N and east of east of 25W, to the 
south of strong high pressure centered east of the Azores.

For the forecast west of 55W, the upper trough is expected to 
help promote the formation of weak low pressure well northeast 
of the Leeward Islands Fri. The low will track east- 
northeastward Fri through Sat, and weaken back into a trough 
while exiting the area to the east of 55W on Sun. High pressure 
will then take precedence over the entire area early next week. 
Moderate to fresh south winds are forecast to develop over the 
waters east of northeastern Florida Tue and Tue night. 

$$
Christensen