| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290551
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                     

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N 72.9W AT 29/0300 UTC 
OR ABOUT 35 NM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 126 NM SE OF 
THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 50 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 68W-74W. THE MAIN IMPACT 
OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS RESULTING IN 
FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS BEGINNING TO EXIT THE AFRICAN COAST. ITS AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 19N15W TO 07N14W. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A HINT OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TRYING TO DEVELOP 
ALONG THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS IN 
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 12W-18W.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH A 
1014 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N41W. THE WAVE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 17N39W TO 08N42W. THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING W 
AT ABOUT 15-20 KT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB AS 
INDICATED BY CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE W OF THE LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 44W-47W WHILE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 39W-41W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 285 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO 09N57W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO NEARLY 
700 MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AS INDICATED BY CIRA LAYER 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE WAVE EXTENDING FROM 
10N-18N BETWEEN 54W-59W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
10N14W TO 11N43W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 08N54W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A BROAD AND ELONGATED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N89W WITH ITS TROUGH EXTENDING SW 
INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT MEANDERS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 
31N86W SW TO 26N86W TO 23N96W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE E GULF E OF 88W. 
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW 
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR 
THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO 
APPROACH THE SE GULF AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STRAITS 
AND KEYS. FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT ERIKA...PLEASE REFER TO THE 
SECTION ABOVE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE 
CARIBBEAN...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. PLEASE 
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE MAINLY N OF 20N AND W OF 79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
BASIN REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR NOTED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 
17N83W COVERING THE W AND CENTRAL BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF 
ERIKA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-
NE TRADES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W AND CENTRAL   CARIBBEAN DUE 
TO ERIKA WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR 
ERIKA TO MOVE NW INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...                                               

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVING OVER 
HAITI AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM ERIKA ASIDE FROM 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL 
OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THE CENTER OF 
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SATURDAY 
MORNING BUT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY 
MORNING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                           

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N W OF 
72W...AFFECTING THE N BAHAMAS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS ARE OVER 
HISPANIOLA NORTHERN WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA 
THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED 
BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS...A 1021 MB LOCATED NEAR 29N65W AND 
THE OTHER A 1020 MB CENTERED NEAR 26N32W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Aug-2015 05:51:33 UTC