Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 162350

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.


...Gale Warning...

As of 2100 UTC the frontal boundary that extends across the Gulf
of Mexico has become stationary, extending from 30N84W to 19N96W.  
A tight pressure gradient and cool dry air associated with the 
front is supporting northerly winds to continue to funnel along 
the coast of Mexico reaching gale force from Tampico to Veracruz 
through late today, with seas reaching 8 to 16 ft. The front will
gradually lose identity across the southeast Gulf of Mexico 
through mid week and these conditions will subside. 


A tropical wave extending from 14N50W to 06N49W, moving west at 
about 15-20 kt. There remains good continuity of this wave on 
various satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 
06N-13N between 42W-52W. 

A tropical wave a little farther west, reaching from 14N58W to 
06N58W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is not as well 
defined, with drier air is impinging on the northern extent of it.
No significant convection is observed with this wave at this 

A tropical wave is analyzed over the central Caribbean, from 
eastern Cuba to the central coast of Colombia. There is good 
continuity in various satellite data and satellite derived winds 
showing a broad wave axis traversing the central Caribbean. No 
significant convection is noted currently in the area of the 
tropical wave axis, largely due to dry subsident air aloft moving 
into the northwest and north central Caribbean at the base of an 
upper- level trough north of the area.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 
06N27W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N46W.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 50W,
scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough mainly east 
of 21W. 



As of 2100 UTC, the frontal boundary that extends across the Gulf
of Mexico has become stationary, extending from 30N84W to 19N96W.
A Gale Warning is in effect for the area west of the front. See
the section above for details. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along and in the vicinity of the frontal boundary
covering most of the basin. Seas are building to 10 ft over the 
northwest Gulf in the area of strong winds west of the front. 
Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere. High pressure 
building north of the area in the wake of the front will allow 
fresh to strong winds across the basin late in the week.


The pressure gradient generated between the high pressure over 
the central Atlantic and an approaching tropical wave east of 
Barbados is supporting fresh to locally strong southeast winds are
noted over the eastern Caribbean. Showers and thunderstorms are 
active from north of 14N and east of 69W affecting mostly Puerto
Rico and adjacent waters. Deep dry air is noted elsewhere, 
related in part to dry subsident air aloft filtering over the 
Caribbean on the south side of an upper-level trough northeast of
the Bahamas. Moderate winds and seas prevail currently. High 
pressure building north of the area will allow strong winds to 
pulse over the south central Caribbean mainly at night and in the
wake of passing short waves through mid week. This trend will 
persist late in the week, with strong winds and building seas 
forecast for across the eastern Caribbean.


A negatively tilted upper-level trough is reaching from off the 
Carolinas through the southern Bahamas and into central 
Hispaniola. Divergence aloft is interacting with local sea 
breezes enhancing convection over the island. This activity will
continue through the next 24 hours. A tropical wave moving across
Hispaniola mid week will bring additional potential for showers, 
ending by late week as drier deep layer moisture moves into the 


Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the 
section above for details. A 1012 mb low is centered north of 
Hispaniola near 25N71W. A surface trough extends north from the 
low to beyond 31N70W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 
23N between 64W-70W. A 1030 mb high is centered over the central 
Atlantic near 34N40W, enhancing fresh trade winds in the deep 
tropics. Elsewhere, the tail end of a weakening frontal boundary 
is producing scattered showers over the Canary Islands and areas 
of Saharan dust continue to move off northeastern Africa into 
adjacent Atlantic waters as far west as 40W.

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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Oct-2017 23:51:08 UTC