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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101743
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 
03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
03N18W TO 01N24W TO 01N31W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 18W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                           
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 26N106W THAT CONTINUES TO 
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. PRECEDING THE MAJORITY OF 
THE ENERGY ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER 
THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 28N94 THAT IS SUPPORTING MOISTURE AND 
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF...IN ADDITION TO 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 93W. 
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SW GULF 
NEAR 20N94W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING N-NE FROM THE LOW 
CENTER TO 25N94W TO 28N90W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF S OF 27N W OF 90W. 
OTHERWISE...THE EASTERN GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE 
RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 25N79W...EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NW TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 
DELTA REGION. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF 
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND BECOME EMBEDDED 
WITHIN S-SW FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO 
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN ANOTHER AROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY INTO 
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE 
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N76W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR 
THE OVERALL STABILITY AND DRY AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BASIN. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING...MOST NOTABLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 62W-
70W...AND S-SW OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 72W-76W. 
OTHERWISE...TRADES REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT 
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
CURRENTLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE 
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE E-
NE OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N65W TO 18N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS 
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 72W-76W. OVERALL THOUGH...MOSTLY DRY 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE 
ISLAND AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH 
ATLC...MAINLY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY 
STRETCHED ALONG A LINE FROM 33N49W TO 30N63W TO 33N79W. THE MID-
LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORTS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ANALYZED INTO THE 
REGION. ONE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 31N70W AND BECOMES 
STATIONARY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N78W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 46W AND THE 66W. THE 
EASTERN MOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N43W SW TO 27N50W TO 
20N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH 
CENTERED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NW 
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W. FINALLY...A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N14W AND SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE FOCUSED AROUND A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY 
ISLANDS AND MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 31N17W. THE OCCLUDED FRONT 
WRAPS AROUND THE LOW FROM 30N21W TO 34N20W AND BECOMES A COLD 
FRONT TO 33N12W TO 28N11W TO 22N20W...THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS 
A STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N34W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN