| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021149
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 AM EST MON MAR 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS RANGING 
BETWEEN 11 AND 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. PLEASE 
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 01S12W TO 01S20W WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF 
BRAZIL NEAR 05S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE 
FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...           

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...THUS 
PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM 
EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA SW TO A 1026 MB 
LOW OVER SOUTHERN TENNESSEE...ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA 
TO 29N93W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM 
IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS A STATIONARY FRONT 
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 27N82W NW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. 
OVER THE SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 25N94W TO 
18N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED OVER 
GUATEMALA WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDING S OF 26N. HOWEVER...SW TO W 
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT ADVECTS MOISTURE TO THE NORTHERN GULF 
FROM E PAC WATERS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN 
SUPPORTS FOG N OF 26N...COINCIDING WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH GOES-13 
IFR PROBABILITIES OF FOG. BOTH STATIONARY FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE TODAY DURING EVENING HOURS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL 
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...    

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER...LESSER ANTILLES AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN 
AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE 
FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE 
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

MOSTLY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COASTAL 
WATERS...THUS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...A 
MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING 
THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING AS 
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N79W SW TO 28N80W...ACROSS CENTRAL 
FLORIDA TO 27N82W NW TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. NO CONVECTION 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...FOG IS BEING REPORTED OVER 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
COAST N OF 28N AS INDICATED BY HIGH IFR PROBABILITIES. THE FRONT 
IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...MOVING 
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE MORNING. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE 
COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR