000
AXNT20 KNHC 031005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jul 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis along 29W in the eastern Atlantic, 
from 16N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 25W and 27W. 

Another tropical wave is along 43W, south of 15N, moving
westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
along the southern portion of the wave axis. 

A third tropical wave is along 54W, south of 15N, moving westward
at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection 
is noted on either side of the wave axis from 08N to 13N between 
48W and 57W. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 18N, 
moving westward at near 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce some 
scattered moderate convection over and near Haiti. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 20N16W and continues SW to 10N27W, then W to near 09N39W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N45W to 08N52W and from 08N56W to 08N60W. 
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, 
scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 11N between
14W and 23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered moderate convection is noted over parts of Florida and 
the NE Gulf, where a surface trough is analyzed. The trough 
extends 31N84W to 25N85W. High pressure of 1018 mb centered near 
26N90W dominates the remainder of the Gulf. Gentle to locally 
moderate cyclonic flow is noted near the trough axis while gentle 
to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere, 
except in the SE Gulf where winds and light and variable.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will sag into the far NE Gulf
today, then stall tonight, and devolve into a surface trough for 
Fri into Sat. This will create showers and thunderstorms for 
waters near Florida through the weekend. Otherwise, weak high 
pressure will prevail into early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please see the 
Tropical Wave section for more details. 

The Atlantic ridge, combined with the Colombian low, is leading to
a pressure gradient that supports fresh to strong trades across 
the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. The 
strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are in the Gulf of Venezuela and 
offshore Colombia. Moderate to rough seas are within these winds, 
peaking around 10 ft near the coast of Colombia. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere across 
the E and SW Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds are blowing 
over the NW part of the basin. Dry and stable atmospheric 
conditions dominate the area, with the only significant convection
in the far SW basin, S of 10N, in association with the eastern 
extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and
lower pressure across NW Colombia and the SW Caribbean will
support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the
south-central basin through the weekend.
 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles.
Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information.

The Atlantic forecast area is generally dominated by a large ridge,
with a 1033 mb high pressure located just NE of the Azores, and a
another 1024 mb high pressure situated near 29N39W. The pressure 
gradient between the Azores High and lower pressures over W Africa
is leading to fresh to locally strong NE winds across the waters 
N of 20N and E of 30W. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt are 
funneling in between the Canary Islands. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in 
this region. Winds are generally moderate to fresh S of 25N, with
seas of 5 to 7 ft. The remainder of the Atlantic north of 25N 
between 30W and 70W is seeing moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas. An upper level low spinning NE of the Leeward 
Islands is generating and area of showers and thunderstorms from 
20N to 23N between 54W and 60W, and a surface trough is forming in
this vicinity. A mid and upper level trough is also inducing 
scattered moderate convection over the NW Bahamas, waters offshore
Florida, and remaining waters N of 26N and W of 77W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, an area of low pressure is forecast
to develop along a weakening frontal boundary near Florida or the
Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by early this 
weekend. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive
for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical 
depression could form in this region over the weekend or early 
next week while the system drifts northward or northeastward. 
Regardless of development, thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are 
possible across portions of Florida and adjacent waters through 
the weekend. There is a low chance of tropical formation within 
the next two days, and a medium chance through the next 7 days. 

$$
Konarik