329 
AXNT20 KNHC 281109
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue May 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1050 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is E of the Cape Verde Islands from 01N to 14N
with axis near 21W, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is from 01N to 09N between 20W and 30W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 01N to 08N with
axis near 49W, moving westward at about 15 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is from 00N to 08N between 48W and 58W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean S of 21N with axis
near 74W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers are
across Hispaniola and adjacent waters, including the Windward
Passage.  

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
close to 15N17W to 07N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N30W to 05N40W. For information regarding convection, see the
Tropical Waves Section. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge dominates the eastern half of the basin while
lower pressures are ongoing W of 90W. This pressure difference
supports gentle to moderate SE winds W of 88W and light to gentle
variable winds elsewhere. Seas across the region are slight to
moderate with the highest seas to 4 ft happening W of 90W. Haze
continues west of 87W due to agricultural fires over Central 
America and Mexico, whis is limiting visibilities to 3 NM or less. 

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate 
across the Gulf through Sat. As a result, winds will be SE gentle 
to moderate west of 87W through Thu, but become moderate to fresh 
Thu evening through Sat night. A weak cold front will move across 
the far NE Gulf today, followed by gentle W to NW winds. Otherwise,
fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions
of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night 
for the next several days. Haze west of 87W due to agricultural 
fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least 
the next couple of days. Visibilities will be 3 NM or less in the 
SW Gulf of Mexico. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure N of the area and the passage of a tropical wave
across the central basin is supporting fresh to locally strong 
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and moderate to 
fresh trades elsewhere. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate,
being highest over the central region with seas to 7 ft.
Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is 
causing reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the 
Bermuda High north of the area and lower pressure along N South 
America will force fresh to strong trades over the S central 
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through Wed before diminishing late
in the week. A tropical wave currently over the central Caribbean
is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves slowly
westward during the next couple of days. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 mb Bermuda High is contributing toward moderate or lighter
winds across the basin, except for moderate to fresh SW winds 
across the offshore zones N of Freeport. The Azores High
associated ridge influences the remainder Atlantic subtropical
waters, thus supporting gentle to moderate winds, except E of 34W,
where winds are moderate to fresh from the NE to E. Moderate to
fresh trades are across the tropical waters from the coast of W
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. 

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to fresh SW winds will
continue across the offshore zones N and NE of Freeport ahead of 
a weak cold front forecast to emerge from the SE United States 
coast this morning. The front will become stationary north of the 
Bahamas today and dissipate tonight. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will accompany the front. Winds and seas away from 
the thunderstorms should remain quiescent for the next few days 
across the forecast waters. Looking ahead, a late-season cold 
front is anticipated to impact the waters north of the Greater 
Antilles Fri night into at least Sat night.

$$
Ramos