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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221043
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 
45.4W OR ABOUT 770 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED 
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH 
OF LOW PRESSURE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 46W-48W. SEE 
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 
11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-75W WITH SEAS 10-12 FT. A SHIP REPORTED 35 
KT WINDS AT 0600 UTC NEAR 12N74W. A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE CONDITIONS UNTIL 23/1200 
UTC. SEE THE LATEST ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
19N37W TO 11N37W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON 
THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A DRY SAHARAN AIR 
LAYER IS N OF 15N HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 20N80W TO 10N80W MOVING W AT 20 KT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE 
ALOFT TOGETHER WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N91W TO THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC AT 8N93W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 91W-93W.   

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
9N20W TO 6N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 6N31W TO 11N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO FROM 
11N48W TO 9N52W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 8N60W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 14W-
20W...AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 
31N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA 
FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 89W-94W. A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. 5 -10 KT ANTICYCLONIC 
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND THE HIGH. 10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS 
ARE NOTED OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
REMAINS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. 
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE. SEE ABOVE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S ALABAMA NEAR 31N88W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER S 
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 


CARIBBEAN SEA...                                            

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A GALE 
IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS 
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS 
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-76W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E GUATEMALA AND W HONDURAS 
FROM 15N-16N BETWEEN 88W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO 
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE 
CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO 
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS 
AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE 
ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                

SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW 
OVER JAMAICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN 24 
HOURS. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING HEATING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE 
CENTRAL AND N BAHAMAS W OF 76W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N64 WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
25N51W ALSO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 22-Jul-2014 10:43:21 UTC