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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030558
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING AT 0600 UTC ALONG THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...LASTING 
UNTIL 1800 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE W ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE 
AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                          

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 16N31W TO 09N32W...MOVING W AT AROUND 10 KT OVER THE PAST 
24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH MOISTURE S OF 13N. 
ENHANCED METEOSAT IMAGERY INDICATES SAHARAN DUST INTRUSION N OF 
13N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W 
AND 36W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 19N69W TO 09N69W...MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A RELATIVELY DRY 
ENVIRONMENT WITH A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE N OF 16N 
ALONG THE WAVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB 
TROUGH BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
17N TO 19N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 19N95W 
TO THE E PACIFIC...MOVING W AT 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 
97W. 


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N16W TO 12N30W...THEN RESUMES W OF A 
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N34W TO 11N50W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES TO 10N59W. OTHER THAN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...  

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W 
WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS E ACROSS N FL. THIS IS PROVIDING A 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE 
BASIN. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N83W ALONG THE BIG BEND 
OF FL WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 
28N87W. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...CONVERGENCE WITH THE 
LOW AND TROUGH...AND THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS 
ALOFT SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. A MOIST AIRMASS EXTENDS WEST 
FROM THE LOW TO THE TX COAST...AND ALSO S ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE N 
GULF N OF 27N W OF 87W...AND ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. A WEAK 1015 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 25N84W SUPPORTING GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC 
WINDS OVER THE S GULF. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS COVER 
THE N GULF. THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE 
SW GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE 
DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF 
THROUGH TODAY AND THE NE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 22N77W WITH CYCLONIC 
FLOW ALOFT COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE INTERACTION OF A 
MOIST AIRMASS WITH THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 75W AND 86W...INCLUDING 
CAYMAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 
PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER S AMERICA WILL SUPPORT GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER A 
PORTION OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN STARTING THIS MORNING. PLEASE 
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE 
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION WILL BECOME ENHANCED ON TUESDAY OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AIRMASS. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                          
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER 
HAITI AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W ACROSS 
THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ISLAND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 22N77W AND IS 
INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. A PAIR OF 
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE W ATLC FROM 29N68W TO 25N71W...AND 
FROM 26N66W TO 22N67W...RESPECTIVELY. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. FARTHER 
EAST...A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N56W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER. A TROPICAL WAVE 
IS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT 
CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE N FL COAST INCLUDING 
NEARBY OFFSHORE WATERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

LATTO

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Page last modified: Monday, 03-Aug-2015 05:58:13 UTC