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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260534
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WITHIN 60 NM OF A 1005 MB LOW 
NEAR 28N68W AND WITHIN 75 NM SE OF COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 
THE LOW ALONG 23N75W INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N77W. SEE 
ATLANTIC SECTION BELOW. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH 26/0600 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                           
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N46W 
TO 8N47W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON 
THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN 40W-51W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N55W TO 
8N56W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON 
THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-
14N BETWEEN 55W-58W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N75W TO 
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED 
ON THE SSMI TPW AND SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THUS NO 
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES TO 10N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS 
AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N24W 7N39W TO 9N44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22N-
30W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-39W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST 
OF W AFRICA S OF 12N W OF 10W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS 
ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE S GULF/E BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN N-NW 
TO OVER TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER 
THE W ATLC COVERS THE E GULF E OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS 
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE 
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N93W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY 
CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE N GULF SUN 
REACHING NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SUN NIGHT THEN LIFT NE OF THE 
AREA MON. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N 
W OF 77W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT AT 26/0300 UTC EXTENDS 
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N77W ALONG 18N82W TO 15N83W. A 1009 MB LOW IS 
JUST TO THE SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 16N82W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER 
HONDURAS ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS 
NE INTO THE W ATLC AND NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO 
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND 
NICARAGUA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR COVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 74W LEAVING THAT AREA WITH 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE 
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING WEAK LOW THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE LOW 
WILL THEN MOVE W-NW AND ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TUE AND TUE 
NIGHT WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA EARLY WED. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL 
ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED. A 
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WED.

HISPANIOLA...                                                   
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE ACROSS HAITI AND THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. 
THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND TODAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD 
FRONT IN THE W CARIBBEAN/W ATLC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL 
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE 
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH MID WEEK.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN 
AND W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A 1005 MB LOW...IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE...NEAR 28N68W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S 
ALONG 23N75W INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A WARM 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SAME LOW NE TO BEYOND 31N63W WHERE IT 
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT NE OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF 
THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. 
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N20W ALONG 24N27W 
ALONG 21N46W INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC TO 15N60W. A WEAK 1015 MB 
LOW IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 28N28W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS 
BETWEEN THE W ATLC FRONT AND THE E ATLC SURFACE LOW ANCHORED BY 
A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 31N40W. THE 1005 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL 
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE SHIFTING 
N OF AREA SUN NIGHT WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE BEHIND EXITING 
LOW. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 32N61W TO WINDWARD 
PASSAGE WHERE IT WILL STALL BRIEFLY MON NIGHT BEFORE DRIFTING SE 
AND DISSIPATING TUE. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT E 
INTO THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH 
MOVING TO OFF THE SE CONUS COAST MON AND SLIDE NE ACROSS W ATLC 
THROUGH MID WEEK. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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Page last modified: Sunday, 26-Oct-2014 05:35:08 UTC