Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 272341

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
641 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

A strengthened pressure gradient is expected to materialize
tonight during the late night and early morning hours off the 
coast of Colombia and re-occur the next several nights. Near gale
to gale force E-NE winds are expected as high pressure anchors 
itself to the N across the SW North Atlc waters for much of the 
week ahead. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 
03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
03N19W to 01N24W to the Equator near 30W. Widely scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N-05N between 
10W-14W...and S of 06N between 18W-28W. Scattered moderate 
convection is S of 06N between 31W-49W.


Water vapor imagery indicates mainly dry air aloft within mostly 
zonal flow over the Gulf basin this evening. At the surface...the
southwestern periphery of ridging anchored across the SW North
Atlc remains in control across the basin with a weak frontal
boundary extending across the SE CONUS. Mostly gentle to moderate
E-SE winds prevail as clear skies are noted on visible satellite 
imagery across a majority of the forecast waters. A few isolated
showers are however possible across the NW waters N of 27N W of
91W in maximum low-level moisture convergence. In addition...a
few isolated showers are possible across the Yucatan peninsula and
adjacent coastal waters of the Yucatan channel in association with
a surface trough analyzed from 18N89W to 22N87W. Moderate to
occasional fresh southerly return flow is forecast to persist 
across the Gulf through Wednesday morning. By Wednesday 
afternoon...the next cold front will emerge off the Texas and 
Louisiana coasts providing a new round of fresh to occasional 
strong N-NE winds in wake of the front as it sweeps E-SE and 
stalls across central portions Thursday night. A reinforcing front
will then push southward off the coastal plain into early Friday 
with fresh to strong E-NE winds occurring across much of the basin
through Saturday night.

Upper level ridging prevails over the Caribbean basin this evening
as water vapor indicates mostly dry air within an overall
subsident and stable environment. One area of interest is a 
surface trough analyzed across the Yucatan peninsula and Belize
from 16N88W to 22N87W. This troughing is providing focus for 
isolated low-topped showers across the NW Caribbean waters from
19N-22N W of 85W. The boundary will drift westward and weaken
across the SW Gulf of Mexico waters overnight into early Tuesday.
Farther east...quick moving isolated showers are possible through
the overnight hours into Tuesday across the SE Caribbean waters S
of 14N E of 65W. Otherwise...aside from the Special Features near
gale to gale force winds expected off the coast of Colombia each 
night...fresh to occasional strong trades are expected to persist
through much of the week as high pressure anchors itself to the N
across the SW North Atlc region.

Currently fair conditions and partly cloudy skies prevail across 
the island this evening. Water vapor imagery also indicates very 
dry air and overall strong subsidence over the region. 

Water vapor imagery shows middle to upper level trough progressing
over the central North Atlc waters supporting a cold front 
entering the discussion area near 32N58W. The front extends SW to
30N65W with only a few possible isolated showers occurring within
45 nm either side of the front. A pre-frontal surface trough
extends in the vicinity of the front near 35N49W to 27N60W with
isolated showers occurring within 90 nm either side of the
boundary. The remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the
influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered
off the mid-Atlc coast near 37N68W. Moderate to occasional fresh
anticyclonic winds are noted on recent scatterometer data within
the southern periphery of this ridge across the discussion waters.
Farther east...the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a
surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered S of the Azores
near 35N30W. One weakness within the ridging...is a dissipating
surface trough boundary extending from 32N41W to 28N46W. Isolated
showers are possible N of 26N between 39W-46W.

For additional information please 
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine


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Page last modified: Monday, 27-Feb-2017 23:41:35 UTC