Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 082353

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
653 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

A cold front extends across the NW Gulf waters from 27N90W to
26N94.5W to the NE Mexico coast near Tampico. Strong 1044 MB high
pressure over Kansas continues building in from the NNW generating
a strengthened pressure gradient between the ridging and a 1014 mb
low centered near 26N94.5W. Gale force northerly winds of 35
kt...with higher gusts to 40-45 kt are occurring generally N of
the frontal boundary and are expected to persist through late
Saturday W of the front along the coast of Mexico. See latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to
07N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N15W to 04N30W to the Equator near 44W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 25W-41W. 


Broad west-southwesterly flow aloft prevails between broad
long wave troughing over the eastern CONUS and an upper level
anticyclonic circulation centered over Central America near
15N84W. The troughing aloft supports two fronts analyzed across
the basin this afternoon. A stationary front lingers from the
Straits of Florida across the Gulf along 24N through 24N88W
becoming diffuse to 23N95W. Widely scattered showers and tstms
are occurring along and within 90 NM N of this front between 84W
and 95W. The second front is a strong cold front analyzed from
near Fort Myers Florida through 27N90W to 26N94.5W to the NE
Mexico coast near Tampico. Strong high pressure continues to
build across Texas and the SE CONUS generating the special
features gale force winds expected through late Saturday across
the far western waters. Buoys and a 1648 UTC ASCAT pass confirmed 
N-NE winds of 30-35 kt off the Texas coast. The front is expected
to slip southward across the Gulf later in the weekend with N
winds diminishing below gale force in the W Gulf and veering more
the ENE late Saturday and ESE on Sunday across the remainder of
the basin.

Much of the Caribbean basin remains fairly tranquil this evening 
as water vapor imagery indicates a very dry and stable
environment aloft between an upper level anticyclone centered near
15N84W and an upper level low centered near 15N71W. At the
surface...mostly clear skies prevail...however the Monsoon Trough
extends along 10N with scattered showers and isolated tstms
occurring from 08N-12N between 76W and the coasts of Nicaragua,
Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered showers and tstms are also
occurring across the eastern Caribbean and southern Lesser
Antilles as a surface trough extends from NE Venezuela near 10N65W
to 17N62W. The widespread shower and tstms activity was being
enhanced by upper level diffluence occurring E of the upper low
near 15N71W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trade winds are
occurring across the basin S of 18N and E of 80W with locally
strong winds within 90 NM of the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
occasional strong trades are expected to persist through late
Saturday with trades increasing slightly through the remainder of
the weekend as the pressure gradient across the basin strengthens.

Overall fair skies prevail this evening over the area as dry and
stable NE winds aloft persist due to an upper level cyclone
centered near 15N71W. These fair conditions are expected through
the remainder of the week into the weekend.

Generally westerly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North
Atlc and central Atlc waters W of 50W this evening. This is
providing fairly progressive and benign weather pattern across
much of the forecast waters...however a lingering cold front
extends from a 1011 MB low near 32N45W WSW through 29N55W to
26N75W and becomes stationary to the Florida Straits near 25N80W.
A few isolated showers are occurring with the front...most notably
across the Florida Straits and NW Bahamas. To the west of this
front...another cold front extends from a 1016 mb low centered
near 34N74W SW to the Florida peninsula just N of Vero Beach. 
This front will begin to advance SE as it becomes invigorated by
an arctic front resulting in stronger N-NW winds by Friday morning
N of 30N W of the boundary. Otherwise...over the eastern Atlc...a
broad middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor
imagery N of 26N between 20W and 40W. This trough supports a cold
front extending through 32N25W SW through 28N30W to 27N39W. Isolated
showers and tstms are occurring generally N of 27N between the
front and 19W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high
centered near 25N60W. The ridge axis extends generally east-west
along 24N/25N and was suppressed further south.

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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Dec-2016 23:53:34 UTC