Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 261727

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.


Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas of Agadir,Casablanca,
and Madeira. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast,
that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. This is for the forecast that is valid until
27/1200 UTC.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 14N38W to
05N37W, moving westward at 05 to 10 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough noted in model guidance
and prevails in an area of abundant moisture as depicted in TPW
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the vicinity
of the wave where it meets the Monsoon Trough from 06N-08N between

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends its axis from 20N64W to
11N65W, moving westward at 05 to 10 kt during the past 24 hours.
A 700 mb trough is noted in model guidance with this wave and an
area of moderate moisture prevails across the eastern Caribbean.
No significant convection is observed with this wave at this


The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the eastern
Atlantic waters near 11N16W to 11N28W to 06N40W. The ITCZ begins
from that point to 07N54W. Aside from the convection related to
the tropical wave along 38W, scattered moderate convection is from
03N-08N between 12W-20W and from 06N-13N between 20W-35W.



A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1030 mb
high centered near 36N78W. A surface trough prevails across the
Bay of Campeche extending from 23N96W 20N95W. Isolated showers are
observed across this boundary. An upper-level trough extends
across the southeast Gulf waters, with a diffluent flow to the
east of it supporting scattered light to moderate convection
across the Yucatan Channel and western Caribbean. Scatterometer
data depicts a gentle anticyclonic flow across the basin. A similar
weather pattern will prevail through the next 24 hours.


A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow prevails
across the western Caribbean supporting scattered showers between
78W-88W. To the east, a shearline extends from 16N84W to 18N78W
to 19N73W. Moderate to fresh northeasterly winds prevail west of
the shearline while gentle to moderate trades prevail across the
remainder of the basin. The Monsoon Trough extends across the
southern waters along 11N between 73W-83W with isolated showers.
Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving west during the
next 24 hours enhancing convection over Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola. Little change is expected elsewhere.


A shearline extends over Haiti and the northeast coast of
Dominican Republic. Aside from that, fair weather prevails across
the island at this time. Scattered showers could develop in the
afternoon hours due to daytime heating.


A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Please refer tot he
section above for details. A surface ridge prevails across the
western Atlantic waters anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near
36N78W. To the east, a shearline extends from Hispaniola near
20N71W to 23N66W. A dissipating stationary front extends from that
point to 31N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed to the
east of these boundaries mainly north of 20N between 56W-61W
supported by a diffluent flow aloft. A surface trough extends from
16N54W to 19N52W. No significant convection accompanies this
boundary. Another surface ridge covers the central Atlantic
anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 38N36W. A 1004 mb low is
centered over the far east Atlantic near 32N18W extending its
trough from the low to 21N23W. Gale-force winds are expected
across this area. Please refer to the Special Features section
above for details.

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 26-Oct-2016 17:28:08 UTC