Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 101743

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1243 PM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.


...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong area of high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico
waters. The pressure gradient is strong enough to support gale
force winds mainly south of 21N and west of 95W, with seas ranging
between 10-16 ft. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward today,
thus these gale winds will decrease by tonight. Please read the
High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends across the African Continent reaching
the Atlantic Ocean near 07N11W to 05N13W. The ITCZ begins from
05N13W to 04N28W to 04N41W. A surface trough is embedded with the
ITCZ extending from 08N31W to 05N31W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 100 nm north of the ITCZ. 



The main concern across the basin is the Gale Warning over Bay of
Campeche. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface
ridge extends across the northern Gulf and inland Mexico anchored
by a 1032 mb high centered near 28N100W. A surface trough extends
from 23N94W to 19N94W with scattered showers. A stationary front
extends across the southern portion of the basin from 21N86W to
24N80W. A band of cloudiness and isolated showers prevails within
150 nm north of this front affecting portions of South Florida and
the Keys, as well as the northern portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly
winds across the central and east Gulf. Expect through the next 24
hours for the frontal boundary in the southern Gulf to weaken and
dissipate. The pressure gradient will relax and gale force winds
will weaken by tonight.


A stationary front extends across the Yucatan Channel with
isolated showers. An upper-level ridge extends across the western
Caribbean with strong dry air subsidence supporting fair weather
north of 15N and west of 78W. Over the central basin, a surface
trough supported by a middle level inverted trough extends from
18N74W to a 1010 mb surface low near 10N77W. These features are under
a upper-level diffluent environment that supports scattered
moderate convection south of 14N between 76W-84W. Scatterometer
data depicts fresh to locally strong easterly winds are occurring
from 11N-18N between 73W and 80W, while moderate to fresh trades
prevail elsewhere. Expect through the next 24 hours for the
trough and low to continue moving west across the basin entering
Central America. The stationary front will meander across the
Yucatan Channel with associated conditions across spreading
modestly into NW Caribbean.


Fair weather prevails across the island due to strong subsidence
of dry air. An increase in low-level moisture will spread
westward across the area today and should lead to passing
tradewind showers mainly in the afternoon hours. Fair weather will
prevail through the rest of the weekend.


A frontal system extends across the western Atlantic, analyzed as
a stationary front from 24N80W to 28N66W then as a cold front from
that point to 32N56W. A surface trough extending south of the
cold front from 24N74W to 27N58W with no significant convection.
South of this, another trough extends north of Puerto Rico from
23N65W to 20N66W with isolated showers. A surface ridge extends
across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1021 mb surface
high centered near 26N42W and a 1026 mb high near 37N25W. Expect
for the cold front in the west Atlantic to continue moving east.
As the surface ridge behind this cold front begins to shift
eastward into the Atlantic overnight and into Saturday, increasing
northeasterly winds and building seas are expected behind the
front. Little change is expected elsewhere.

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Page last modified: Saturday, 10-Dec-2016 17:43:46 UTC