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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250537
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W AND 
CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC WATERS TO NEAR 05N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS 
NEAR 05N22W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N30W TO 06N40W TO THE COAST OF 
SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-
5N BETWEEN 10W-21W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF REGION 
FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BASED ON A RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER PASS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA.  
MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE SE CONUS SHOWS A NARROW 
BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OVER FLORIDA 
EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO NEAR NAPLES. BANDS OF 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SOUTH 
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE 
GULF REGION FROM SE MEXICO TO THE SE CONUS IN A SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT INCREASING 
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN BY 
SAT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE 
WINDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHALLOW MOISTURE 
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. PATCHES 
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER 
ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PASSING SHOWERS ARE ALSO 
SEEN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON 
NIGHT...OCCASIONALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN 
OVERNIGHT...EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS 
THIS MORNING...THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM FAR 
CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS THROUGH FRI. FRESH NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...A 
RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN 
PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...                   

A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING 
FAIR WEATHER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 29N65W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC COVERING THE NE 
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE ARE ALSO NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM.  
FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED AND EXTENDS FROM 31N30W 
TO 20N40W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 
24N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG 
LOW PRES LOCATED N OF AREA. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 
THE RIDGE TO THE W IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF 
THE FRONT N OF 24N. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC 
FORECAST AREA. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS OBSERVED  
ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N70W TO 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE 
BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND LIFT NORTHWARD FRI AS THE NORTHERN PART 
OF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR


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Page last modified: Thursday, 25-Dec-2014 05:38:07 UTC