000
AXNT20 KNHC 161013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jul 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93): Surface observations 
indicate that a broad area of low pressure continues to move 
westward across the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia, 
and is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity 
mainly south of its center over the Gulf waters. Recent satellite 
imagery suggests that a new surface low has formed along the 
Florida coast near 30N84W, estimated at 1012 mb, with a surface 
trough extending S-SW and well offshore. This system is forecast 
to continue moving westward, and could emerge or redevelop over 
the far northeastern to north-central portion of the Gulf, 
reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday. If this system moves 
far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear
generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical 
depression could still form over the next couple of days before 
the system moves fully inland by the end of the week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized 
flash flooding over portions of Florida through through today.  
Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the 
north-central Gulf Coast beginning late today and continuing through 
Friday. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone 
development during the next 48 hours and also during the next 7 
days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 22N to
10N, moving westward at 10 kt. A 1014 mb surface low along along
the monsoon trough there near 21.5N21.5W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is observed from 09N to 14.5N and east
of 24W.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 19N, moving 
westward near 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted north of the wave
from 17.5N to 20N between 59W and 64W, and also behind the wave
from 05N to 11.5N between 52W and 57W. 

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted north of the wave from 20N to 25N between 69W and 73.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues to 1014 mb low pressure near 
21.5N21.5W then southwestward to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 
07N41W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered 
moderate convection is found south of 08N and between 26W and 
50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
on AL93 over the Florida Panhandle.

Complex middle to upper level low pressure extends from the
Bahamas westward across the Gulf and into eastern Texas. 
Broad low to middle level cyclonic circulation continues to force
bands and clusters of moderate to strong convection across the NE
Gulf that is shifting westward across the waters south of the
Florida Panhandle to the mouth of the Mississippi river. 
Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is are noted across much
of the SE Gulf waters, while generally dry conditions prevail west
of 90W. A 1018 mb high is centered near 27.5N92W and extends a
ridge southeast to the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is
producing a weak pressure gradient across the Gulf, supporting 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will meander about the NW 
Gulf through late Thu. A weak 1012 mb low pressure, Invest AL93, 
is along the coast of the Florida Big Bend near 30N84W. This 
system is expected to move generally westward and could emerge or 
redevelop over the far northeastern to north-central portion of 
the Gulf, reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thu. If this system 
moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf 
appear generally favorable for additional development, and a 
tropical depression could still form over the next couple of days 
before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week. 
Regardless, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some 
with strong gusty winds and locally rough seas, will accompany 
this system. The Atlantic ridge will build westward across the 
Gulf along 28N over the weekend. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper level trough extends from the central Bahamas
southward across eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage to broad
upper level low pressure over the SW Caribbean. This feature is
providing lift to support scattered moderate convection both east
and west of the trough, north of 19N between 74W and 82W. mainly
affecting the waters south of Cuba. Fair and stable conditions
generally prevail across the rest of the basin. Atlantic high
pressure is centered along 32N between 50W and 63W, and extends a
ridge westward to just offshore of the Georgia and South Carolina
coasts. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is forcing fresh
to strong easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft in the central 
Caribbean south of 16N, with the strongest winds and highest seas
occurring off northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly 
breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the eastern Caribbean. 
Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Central Atlantic high pressure will gradually
build westward across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of 
America through Sat. Fresh to strong trades and rough seas over 
the south-central Caribbean will expand across most of the 
central portions of the basin this evening through Sat morning as 
the Atlantic high pressure gradually shifts westward to near 75W. 
These winds are expected to contract in aerial coverage late Sat 
through Sun as the high pressure weakens. Fresh E winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Honduras Thu through Sat. Moderate to 
fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern 
Caribbean through the period while gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas will prevail NW portions through Fri. A 
pair of tropical waves across the eastern Caribbean and Tropical 
Atlantic waters this morning will race quickly across the basin 
through Fri, mainly producing active weather across the SW 
Caribbean waters Fri through Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N32.5W to 24N52W, followed by a 
dissipating. Scattered light showers are evident along this 
boundary east of 43W. The rest of the basin is dominated by an 
expansive subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic
along 32N. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower 
pressures associated with Invest 93L over the Florida Panhandle 
is sustaining moderate to fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas 
west of 72W. Scattered showers and occurring across the coastal 
waters of the Leeward Islands, Hispaniola and the southeast 
Bahamas associated with the two tropical waves. South of the 
ridge, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are 
evident on recent satellite scatterometer wind data south of 25N 
and between 55W and 76W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas
are present between 35W and the Lesser Antilles and south of 20N.
In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Central Atlantic high pressure will
build gradually westward across the region and across Florida 
today through Sat as low pressure across the NE Gulf of America 
shifts westward. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge 
and this low pressure will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds
across the Bahamas and through the NW zones through early Thu, 
then continue across the southern Bahamas through Fri night as the
high slides west to 75W. High pressure will then weaken over the 
weekend.

$$
Stripling