Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 041807

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.


Atlantic Gale Warning...A cold front extends from 31N47W to 24N68W
with southwest gale force winds north of 30N east of the front
to 42W. Gale winds are forecast to diminish by Monday early
afternoon. Please see the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 05N10W to 13N20W where it transitions to the ITCZ,
which continues to 13N30W to 16N40W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 01S to 09N between 25W and 40W. Isolated showers are
within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough.



Southwesterly flow associated with a broad middle to upper ridge
anchored over the Caribbean continue to cover the Gulf waters
aloft. Low level moisture advected from the Caribbean converges
along a stationary front that extends from a 1013 mb low S of
Louisiana near 29N90W to 26N95W to 23N98W. Upper level diffluence
in the NW Gulf support scattered heavy showers and tstms W of the
frontal boundary. Fog and hazy conditions are being reported
within 120 nm E of the front. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are N of
27N E of 88W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE flow dominate across
the remainder basin along with fair weather conditions supported
by strong dry air subsidence. The front will meander over the
northwest Gulf through tonight. A cold front will move across the
Gulf Monday and Tuesday followed by fresh to strong winds through
Monday night.


Middle and upper level ridging continue across the Caribbean with
strong dry air subsidence in the central and eastern basin that
support mainly stable and fair weather conditions. In the SW N
Atlantic, a pre-frontal surface trough extends from 25N53W to
21N63W to the Mona Passage with isolated showers and tstms within
90 nm either side of its axis extending to Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic. CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW imagery show abundant
moisture in the W Caribbean that along with upper level diffluence
support heavy showers and tstms from 12N to 22N W of 76W, except
for the Gulf of Honduras and Belize adjacent waters. Surface
ridge over the west Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong
trade winds near the coast of Colombia and northwest Venezuela
through mid week. Similar winds are expected in the west Caribbean
Monday night through Tuesday.


A surface trough in the SW Atlantic extends from 25N53W to 21N63W
to the Mona Passage, which along with low level moisture in the
region support isolated showers and tstms over Dominican Republic and
adjacent waters this evening. Showers and tstms will continue
through Tuesday as the tail of a cold front moves over the
northern Island.


Surface high pressure anchored over the NE CONUS extends a ridge
SE across the SW N Atlantic waters, thus providing fair and
stable conditions. Ahead of the ridge, a cold front extends from
31N44W to 26N58W to 24N68W where it becomes a dissipating
stationary front to 24N80W. This front is transecting an area of
dry air, thus no shower activity is noted. A pre-frontal surface
trough extends from 25N53W to 21N63W to the Mona Passage with
isolated showers and tstms within 90 nm either side of its axis
extending to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. NW of the
ITCZ, three surface troughs are noted, one from 19N43W to 10N45W
with scattered heavy showers within 210 nm E of its axis. The
other troughs extend from 18N51W to 11N54W and from 18N63W to
15N59W with no convection. A surface ridge covers the remainder
NE Atlc anchored by a 1019 mb high near 23N32W. There is a gale
warning ahead of the Atlc cold front. See Special Features above.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine


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Page last modified: Sunday, 04-Dec-2016 18:07:39 UTC