000
AXNT20 KNHC 141754
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jul 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W from 03-20N, moving
westward at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen from 03-10N between 40-49W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W from 18N southward,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the
wave axis, with thunderstorms ongoing over portions of Suriname
and Guyana.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 05N35W. The
ITCZ then runs from 05N35W to 06.5N44W where it is broken by a
tropical wave. The ITCZ then resumes at 07N46W and continues to
06N54W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves
section above, numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
occurring from 04-13N between the west coast of Africa and 32W.
Scattered moderate convection is also occurring from 01-05N
between 35-40W, with more scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms occurring along and near the ITCZ between 45-54W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring in the far SW Caribbean generally S of 12N and W of 80W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level trough digging southwest into the area continues 
to produce scattered moderate convection over portions of the Gulf
N of 25N and E of 86W. In the SW Gulf, scattered moderate
convection is developing in the convergent surface flow between a
surface trough over the Bay of Campeche and high pressure inland
over Mexico. At the surface, a 1020 mb high pressure in the 
east-central Gulf near 27N87W is forcing moderate to locally fresh
E-SE to SE winds over much of the western part of the basin, west
of 90W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite 
pass. Seas in these waters are 2-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure continues across the NE 
Gulf, producing gentle to moderate SE to S winds over the western 
Gulf, and mainly light winds elsewhere. The high pressure will 
drift slowly westward and into the NW Gulf by Wed. In the 
meantime, elongated low pressure near the southeastern U.S. coast 
is expected to move westward across Florida during the next day or
so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tue. Environmental 
conditions appear favorable and some gradual development of this 
system is possible while it moves westward to west-northwestward 
across the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf 
during the middle to latter part of this week. Scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, 
will accompany this system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for details on
convection in the SW Caribbean. 

The pressure gradient between a ridge north of the region and the
1011 mb Colombia Low supports fresh to strong easterly trade 
winds in the south-central and SW Caribbean south of 15N, and 
across the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the south-central to SW 
Caribbean are 7-10 ft and 5-7 ft across the Gulf of Honduras. 
Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are 
noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. In the 
remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will continue N of the area along 
29N today. High pressure across the central Atlantic will 
gradually build westward across the regional Atlantic and into 
Florida tonight through Thu. This pattern will support pulsing 
fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south central 
Caribbean through Tue then expand across much of the central basin
Wed through Fri. Fresh E winds are expected across the Gulf of 
Honduras through tonight, and then again Wed through Fri. Moderate
to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern 
Caribbean through the period while gentle to moderate winds and 
slight to moderate seas will prevail in the NW portions. A 
tropical wave currently along 57W will enter the far eastern 
Caribbean early Tue, move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean
through Tue night, across the central Caribbean Wed through Thu 
night and across the western Caribbean Sea Fri and Fri night. 
Another tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles Wed and 
move across the eastern Caribbean through Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An elongated 1014 mb low center was analyzed near 29.5N78W. A 
middle to upper level low center is just north of the area and is 
digging southward into the area, and providing divergence aloft 
that supports scattered moderate to strong convection from 30N 
south and southwestward across the NW Bahamas and to the Straits 
of Florida. To the east of 76W, scattered showers dot the waters
north of 23N to 60W due to an upper level trough. The rest of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge 
centered on a 1025 mb high near 28.5N40W, supporting moderate to 
locally fresh easterly trade winds and 4-7 ft seas south of 24N 
and between 25W and 65W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds seas of 6-9 ft
are noted east of 25W from 17N to the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak ridge along 29N will 
dominate the forecast area east of 75W today. Elongated low 
pressure near the southeastern U.S. coast extending to offshore of
central Florida is expected to move westward across Florida 
during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf of 
America by late Tue. High pressure over the central Atlantic will 
then build westward across the region and into Florida Tue through
Fri in the wake of the low pressure. Active thunderstorms are 
expected in association with this low pressure system over the 
waters west of 75W through Tue. The pressure gradient between the 
Atlantic ridge building westward and the low pressure will support
moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the Bahamas and through 
the NW zones Tue through early Thu. 

$$
Adams