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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 060532
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...                                      
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N 
BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED 
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE 
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE 
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 50W 
FROM 6N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. SEE ITCZ 
BELOW. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 59W S OF 16N 
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W-NW NEAR 25 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP 
MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 86W S OF 19N TO 
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 20N16W ALONG 11N21W TO 7N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N48W THEN 
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N52W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE 
NEAR 8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 44W-55W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W-44W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT 
EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW 
NEAR 24N87W OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL 
INCLUDING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE 
FROM 27N88W TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. A SEA BREEZE 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN 
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N 
E OF 85W TO OVER FLORIDA WHERE THE SHOWERS BECOME NUMEROUS. 
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST 
REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. 
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES 
TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA 
TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS. THIS 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN 
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO 
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL 
PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A 
PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE 
WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE 
FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF 
COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W 
CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE 
WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND EXIT THE CARIBBEAN BY 
WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON 
NIGHT/EARLY TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE PLUMB 
OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS PLAGUED THE CARIBBEAN FOR 
THE PAST SEVERALS DAYS IS KEEPING ANY LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS 
FROM FURTHER DEVELOPING. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE S 
COAST OF THE ISLAND MON EVENING INCREASING THE AVAILABLE 
MOISTURE. TUE EVENING WILL BRING A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND FURTHER INCREASING THE MOISTURE. THIS 
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
ON TUE AND WED. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N78W AND IS 
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO  
GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 76W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E 
CENTERED NEAR 26N69W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS TO THE NE OF THE 
FIRST AND IS CENTERED NEAR 31N51W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH 
THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 26N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 
28N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W 
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 
33N41W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 
32N59W THEN ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEXT PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN 
DUST REMAINS OVER THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N/26N TO THE 
CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW

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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Jul-2015 05:33:07 UTC