Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 072342

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 PM EST WED DEC 7 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


A frontal system will enter the northern portion of the Gulf of
Mexico tonight into early Thursday. Strong northerly winds will
prevail behind the front with gusts to gale force affecting the
area north of 25N and west of 90W. These conditions will continue
through the end of the week. Please see the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N16W to
04N29W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N
between 32W-50W. A surface trough is analyzed W of the ITCZ from
17N57W to 08N57W. Scattered moderate convection is along this
boundary between 52W-61W. 



Gale force winds are expected to develop across the northern Gulf
during the next 12-18 hours. Please refer to the section above for
details. A dry stationary front extends from 26N97W to 29N90W to
30N84W. To the south, another stationary front extends from
21N96W to 25N81W. Isolated showers are observed along this
boundary. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate easterly
winds across the basin, with some variations near the frontal
boundaries. During the next 24 hours, a stronger cold front is
expected to move off the Texas and Louisiana coast introducing the
strong to gale force northeast winds mentioned above. For the
remainder of the week, strong to near gale force northeast winds
will prevail as the front moves southeast across the basin.


Water vapor imagery indicates a mostly dry and stable environment
aloft between an upper level anticyclone centered near 16N85W and
a broad upper-level low centered near 13N68W. At the surface,
mostly clear skies prevail across the basin except along the
Monsoon Trough that extends along 09N between 78W-83W. A 1009 mb
surface low is centered in the Monsoon Trough near 10N78W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed with this low.
Scatterometer data depicts trade winds generally in the moderate
to fresh levels with the exception of the waters off the coast of
Colombia. Fresh to occasional strong trades are expected in this
area through Friday night-Saturday. A surface trough will enter
the eastern Caribbean later tonight enhancing convection across
the Lesser Antilles. 


Clear skies prevail across the island as dry and stable northeast winds
aloft persist due to an upper-level anticyclone centered near
16N85W. These conditions will continue through the remainder of
the week and weekend.


A frontal system extends across the western portion of the basin
analyzed as a stationary front from 26N80W to 27N77W then as a
cold front from that point to 29N71W to 31N65W. Isolated showers
are observed along the cold front. To the east, a broad 1019 mb
surface high is centered near 24N64W. With this, a surface ridge
extends across the basin. A cold front is entering our area of
discussion extending from 30N53W to 29N45W to 31N37W with isolated
showers mostly to the east of the front and north of 27N. Expect
for the front to continue moving across the basin. Little change
is expected elsewhere.

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 07-Dec-2016 23:42:44 UTC