Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 091730

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1229 PM EST FRI DEC 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.


...Gale-Force winds in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front extends across the southern Gulf of Mexico from
19N94W to 22N93W to 24N80W. A 1041 mb surface high pressure is
centered near 37N96W. The pressure gradient behind the front is
inducing gale force winds from 18N-25N and west of 90W with seas
up to 20 ft mainly west of 96W. Please read the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more


The Monsoon Trough extends across the African Continent reaching
the Atlantic near 06N12W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
05N22W to 06N37W. A surface trough extends west of the ITCZ from
08N41W to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
02N-09N between 12W-41W. 



Latest scatterometer data depicts gale force winds already
occurring over the western Gulf. Please refer to the section
above for details. A cold front extends from 19N94W to 22N93W to
24N80W. Cloudiness and isolated moderate convection is observed
along and north of the front affecting the majority of the basin.
Moderate northerly winds prevail across the eastern Gulf waters.
The front is expected to move slowly southward then become
stationary across the Florida Straits and northwest Cuba this
weekend with northerly winds diminishing below gale force in the
western Gulf.


An upper-level anticyclone centered over eastern Honduras near
15N85W while an upper-level low centered near 16N73W. At the
surface, the Monsoon Trough extends along 10N with scattered
moderate convection between 77W-82W. A surface trough extends
south of Hispaniola 18N72W to 13N73W with scattered moderate
convection between 64W-74W. This trough is supported by the
upper-level low described previously. Scatterometer data depicts 
moderate to fresh trade winds across the central portion of the
basin between 68W-75W while moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh
to occasional strong trades are expected across the south-central
Caribbean mainly north of Colombia through late Saturday with
trades increasing slightly through the remainder of the weekend as
the pressure gradient across the basin strengthens. A frontal
boundary will approach the western Caribbean enhancing winds/seas.
The front will become stationary along the Yucatan Channel and
through north-western Cuba. 


Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. A surface
trough extends south of the island supported by an upper-level low
currently centered near 16N73W. These features will enhance
showers across the area in the afternoon/ evening hours. Fair
conditions are expected through the weekend.


A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 25N80W to
31N69W. Cloudiness and isolated convection is observed along and
northwest of the front. A surface ridge extends across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1021 mb surface high centered
near 24N56W and a 1022 mb high centered near 32N31W. A pair of
weakening frontal boundaries were analyzed north of the ridge.
The first is a dissipating front from 27N72W to 28N58W to 27N48W
then transitions to a dissipating cold front from that point to a
1016 mb surface low near 32N40W. The next dissipating cold front
extends from 26N32W to 31N24W. No significant convection is
related to any of these fronts. Expect for the cold front in the
west Atlantic to continue moving east. Little change is expected

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Page last modified: Friday, 09-Dec-2016 17:30:34 UTC