000
AXNT20 KNHC 271655
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon May 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1635 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along
16W, south of 15N, based on satellite imagery and wave 
diagnostics guidance. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 
01N to 11N and east of 20W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic has been relocated along
39W, south of 11N, based on recent scatterometer satellite data. 
The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N and between 
35W and 43W. The satellite-derived wind data also captured fresh 
to strong winds primarily associated with the strongest 
convection. 

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea along 70W, south 
of 21N, extending across the Dominican Republic to NW Venezuela. 
The wave passage was evident in the 1200 UTC Santo Domingo, DR, 
radiosonde at 700 mb. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 knots. 
A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh 
winds associated with this wave. The wave is moving into the dry 
side of the upper level trough that extends from the western 
Atlantic to the SW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are seen east of the trough axis to 66W and north of
15N. Moisture associated with this wave will spread on Tue into 
Jamaica and eastern Cuba. The storm activity may produce gusty 
winds and locally heavy rain over the next few days from eastern 
Cuba to the Virgin Islands, especially in mountainous areas, 
leading to flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather 
office for more specific information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 06N24W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 05N38W and then from 05N40W to
05N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
present from 04N to 08N and between 28W and 34W, and also south of
07N and west of 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high pressure system located a few hundred miles south
of Bermuda continues to extend into the western Gulf of Mexico,
maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds are occurring south of 25N and between 85W and
95W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Hazy conditions
due to agricultural fires in Mexico persist across most of the 
western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Visibilities are 3 nm
or less across many observing sites along the SW and western Gulf
coast.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate 
across the Gulf trough Fri, maintaining a weak pressure pattern 
over the basin. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds west of 87W will 
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds later today, but will resume
again Thu evening through Fri night. A weak cold front will move 
across the far NE Gulf late tonight, followed by gentle W to NW 
winds. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near 
the N and W portions of Yucatan peninsula during the late 
afternoons and at night for the next several days. Haze from 
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue 
west of 87W for at least the next couple of days. Visibilities 
will be 3 NM or less in the SW Gulf of Mexico. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical
wave currently moving across the central Caribbean Sea. 

Aside from the tropical wave, the eastern Pacific monsoon trough
straddles the isthmus of Panama into western Colombia, enhancing 
the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the SW 
and south-central Caribbean, especially within 120 nm of the 
coasts of Panama and Colombia. A persistent upper level trough 
extends from the western Atlantic into the SW Caribbean and 
maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions in the NW Caribbean.

A 1020 mb high pressure system north of the islands dominates the
basin, forcing moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds 
over much of the eastern and central Caribbean and also west of 
84W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Hazy conditions 
continue to affect the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires 
over Central America. Visibilities are 3 nm or less along the 
northern coast of Honduras and Bay Islands. 

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High north of the area and lower pressure along N South America 
will force fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and
Gulf of Honduras through Wed before diminishing late in the week.
A tropical wave currently over the central Caribbean will be 
contributing toward scattered showers and thunderstorms as it 
moves slowly westward during the next couple of days. Smoke from 
agricultural fires over Central America are causing reduced 
visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the 
tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic.

Divergence aloft and a couple of surface troughs in the central
Atlantic result in isolated showers and thunderstorms north of 20N
and between 48W and 58W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is
dominated by broad surface ridging, anchored by a 1027 mb high
pressure system near the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds are found south of a line from the Canary Islands to the
Leeward Islands. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a 1020 mb Bermuda High is contributing
toward moderate or lighter winds across the basin today. A weak 
cold front should emerge from the SE United States coast tonight, 
but then become stationary north of the Bahamas and dissipate by 
Wed. The front will be accompanied by scattered showers and 
thunderstorms. Winds and seas - away from the thunderstorms - 
should remain quiescent for the next several days across the 
forecast waters.

$$
Delgado