000
AXNT20 KNHC 031012
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri May 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 06N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 01N47W. Convection previously
associated with these features has dissipated early this morning.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergence aloft and deep tropical moisture is supporting
scattered moderate convection offshore Texas and Louisiana, with
dry conditions over the rest of the basin. High pressure centered
over the northern Gulf maintains moderate to fresh E-SE winds and
seas of 3 to 6 ft south of 25N and W of 88W. Mainly gentle winds 
and slight seas are found in the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
centered over the NE Gulf and lower pressures in the western Gulf
will continue to support moderate to fresh winds over much of the
Gulf of Mexico well into next week. Fresh to locally strong winds
will pulse at night for the next few days near the northern and 
western Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic surface trough extends SW to Haiti and is inducing
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over and in the
vicinity of Hispaniola. Refer to local weather advisories for 
information regarding any heavy rainfall or related flooding. 
Another trough extends from northern Colombia to south of Jamaica.
This trough is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
south-central Caribbean. These features have disrupted the 
typical tradewind regime over the basin, with light to gentle 
winds over the central and SW Caribbean, moderate winds in the NW 
and NE basin, and fresh E to SE winds in the SE Caribbean. Seas in
the central and western basin are 2 to 4 ft, with 4 to 6 ft waves
in the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected 
in the northwestern Caribbean into tonight, and in the Windward 
Passage nightly through the weekend. Mainly moderate winds are 
expected over the remainder of the area through early next week. 
The interaction between a trough along 80W/81W south of 20N with 
the base of a western Atlantic upper-level trough that extends 
into the western Caribbean has resulted in the development of 
scattered showers and thunderstorms from the eastern tip of Cuba 
to the Windward Passage. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep-layer trough extends from near Bermuda to Hispaniola, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring in association with
it from 20N to 30N between 52W and 72W. For waters N of 20N and W
of 50W, winds and seas are moderate or less, except locally higher
near the most robust convection. Farther east, another surface
trough extends from 30N30W to 21N50W. No convection is associated
with this trough, and winds N of 20N and E of 50W are mainly light
to gentle, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. S of 20N, trade winds dominate,
with moderate to locally fresh E winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the gradient between high pressure 
over the western Atlantic and the aforementioned trough will 
support pulsing fresh east to southeast winds east of the trough,
and moderate to fresh northeast to east winds west of the trough.
The trough is expected to help promote the formation of weak low 
pressure along the surface trough later today. The low will track 
east- northeastward through Sat, then dissipate along the trough 
while exiting the area on Sun. High pressure will then take 
precedence over the entire area early next week. Moderate to 
locally fresh south winds are forecast to develop over the waters 
east of northeastern Florida Tue and Tue night. 

$$
Konarik