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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 012339
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 10N46W TO 01N46W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 
AROUND 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE IS IN AN 
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. SCATTERED LIGHT TO 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 43W-46W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
18N82W TO 09N81W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT. SSMI 
TPW SHOWS ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE 
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 76W-
86W AFFECTING THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF 
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND JAMAICA. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF AFRICA ENTERING 
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUE TO 07N21W. THE 
ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS POINT TO 03N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IS OVER W TENNESSEE EXTENDS ITS 
TROUGH S REACHING THE NW GULF. THIS TROUGH IS KEEPING THE NW 
GULF CONVECTION FREE MAINLY W OF 92W. TO THE E OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ENHANCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 92W WITH A HIGHER 
CONCENTRATION S OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 30N87W TO 27N90W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THIS 
BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE GULF OF 
CAMPECHE FROM 24N91W TO 20N94W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS OBSERVED 
ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE 
CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE 
BASIN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD  
OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE 
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.  
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS 
PRODUCING DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND NW 
CARIBBEAN S OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-92W. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES 
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-77W 
WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER 
DATA. A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE COMBINATION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING 
IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. 
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE 
AGAIN ON TUESDAY IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK 1017 SURFACE LOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED 
NEAR 31N72W. S OF THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE BAHAMAS FROM 26N71W TO 21N75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
ITS AXIS FROM 38N60W TO 30N73W. E OF THIS AXIS...A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 33N60W TO 31N61W AND 
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG 60W AND N 
OF 21N. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS 
BETWEEN THE E ATLANTIC AND AFRICA SUPPORTING NEAR GALE FORCE 
WINDS OVER THE AGADIR AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER 
TO THE METEO-FRANCE FORECAST OFFICE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD 
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA

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Page last modified: Monday, 01-Jun-2015 23:39:34 UTC