000
AXNT20 KNHC 290603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed May 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W from 12N 
southward moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and disorganized rainshowers, are within 400
nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 540 nm to the 
west of the tropical wave. The tropical wave was re-positioned
based on the scatterometer data.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W from 11N 
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and disorganized rainshowers, are within
420 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/79W from 21N 
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: 
scattered moderate to strong is from 11N to 13N between 78W and
80W. This weather system continues to enhance the precipitation
that is in parts of Hispaniola and the regional waters. Moisture
that is associated with this tropical wave will spread into
Jamaica and eastern Cuba through at least Wednesday. It is
possible that the storm activity may produce gusty winds and
locally heavy rain. Please, refer to bulletins and forecasts that
are from your local weather bureau office for more detailed 
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau close to 12N16W, to 07N25. No ITCZ is apparent. 
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 08N to 11N
between 14W and 16W; and from 10N to 11N between 16W and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from NE Florida to SE Mississippi.
An outflow boundary is in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Numerous strong
rainshowers are in Texas from 32N southward from 96W westward, and
in NE Mexico, around a stationary front and a second outflow
boundary. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are from 23N
northward from the Florida Big Bend westward.

Scattered strong rainshowers are from 28N to 30N between 78W and
80W, and from 26N to 27N between the NW Bahamas to 80W. This
precipitation is taking place to the east of a north-to-south
oriented surface trough that is in Florida.

Hazy conditions, that are due to agricultural fires in Mexico and
in Central America, are persisting in most of the western half of
the Gulf of Mexico. The visibilities are 3 nm or less at many of
the observing sites that are along the western and southwestern 
coastal areas. 

Slight seas are in the Gulf of Mexico. Strong SE winds are within
100 nm of the coast from 24N to 28N. Moderate or slower winds are
in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

Strong thunderstorms are moving off the Texas and Louisiana 
coasts. These storms are producing frequent lightning, gusty winds
and locally rough seas. Outside of those storms, weak surface 
ridging will continue to dominate across the Gulf through Sun. As 
a result, winds will pulse moderate to fresh during the evenings 
through the weekend. A weak cold front will move across the far NE
Gulf tonight, followed by gentle W to NW winds. Otherwise, fresh 
to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions of 
the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night for 
the next two days. Haze west of 89W due to agricultural fires over
Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the next 
couple of days, impacting visibility at times. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is sending cyclonic wind flow from the 
Yucatan Peninsula to the Windward Passage. The affected areas 
include the Bahamas, Cuba, in the NW Caribbean Sea, and in parts 
of Central America. This feature continues to transport abundant
tropical moisture northward from the SW Caribbean, to Hispaniola 
and into the Atlantic Ocean. The precipitation is being enhanced.
Hazy conditions persist in the Gulf of Honduras due to the 
agricultural fires that are in northern Central America. 
Visibilities may decrease to less than 3 nm at times in the Gulf 
of Honduras, especially close to the coast. A surface trough is 
along 15N68W beyond 20N61W. 

The monsoon trough is along 10N between 74W in Colombia beyond 
90W in the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to 
strong is within 75 nm to the north of the monsoon trough from 80W
westward.

Strong NE winds are in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong NE
winds are within 75 nm of the coast of Honduras between 85W and
88W. Fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere within 180 nm to the north
of Honduras from 84W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are
elsewhere within 150 nm to the north of Venezuela and Colombia
between 68W and 75W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 10N to 13N
from 80W westward, on the western side of the Caribbean Sea
tropical wave. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds cover the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet
in the southern half of the central one-third of the area.
Mostly moderate seas are elsewhere in the central one-third of
the area. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet in the 
eastern one-third of the area, and from 4 feet to 6 feet in the 
SW corner. Slight to moderate seas are in the rest of the area, 
including in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 29/0000 UTC, are: 0.20 in Guadeloupe, and 0.10 in Curacao. 
This information is from the Pan American Temperature and 
Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of 
the area and low pressure along near Colombia will force fresh to 
strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras 
through Wed. Winds will become moderate to fresh from Thu through 
the weekend. A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean 
is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, 
Jamaica adjacent waters and the SW Caribbean. This convective 
activity is forecast to continue over the western basin as the 
wave moves slowly westward during the next couple of days. Smoke 
from agricultural fires over Central America is causing reduced 
visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 31N48W beyond 20N61W, and into the
Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the 
period that ended at 29/0000 UTC, are: 0.30 in Bermuda. This 
information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation
Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 14N northward from 
the 31N48W-to-20N61W surface trough eastward. 

Moderate to rough seas are from 15N to 20N from 32W eastward.
Moderate seas are elsewhere to the southeast of 31N26W 26N36W
18N60W. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.
Strong NE winds are from 06N to 12N between 46W and 53W. Fresh to
strong NE winds are from 19N northward from 21W eastward. Fresh NE
winds are elsewhere to the southeast of 31N20W 26N28W 19N38W 18N50W
16N60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean.

Surface ridging extending from high pressure over the NW Atlantic
is contributing toward moderate or lighter winds across the 
region. The moderate winds are due to a weak cold front forecast 
to emerge from the SE United States coast tonight. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The front will
move eastward toward the Greater Antilles later this week and 
into the weekend, bringing moderate to fresh winds. Otherwise, 
winds and seas away from the thunderstorms should remain quiescent
for the next few days across the forecast waters.

$$
mt/nr