Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 180950

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
450 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

A developing area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen
offshore of the mid-Atlc coast by Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The associated cold front is expected to extend into the SW North
Atlc region generating near gale to gale force SW to W winds
generally N of 30N between 61W-70W. See latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more 

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 
02N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 02N21W 
to 01N34W to the Equator near 38W. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is from 02N-06N between 08W-15W...and S of 04N between


A middle to upper level ridge prevails over the Gulf basin this
morning with axis extending along 84W. Primarily southwest to 
westerly flow aloft is noted within the western periphery of the 
ridging with scattered cloudiness and possible isolated showers 
occurring across the far NW Gulf waters focused along a warm 
front analyzed from SW Louisiana along the SE Texas Gulf coast to
a 1014 mb low near 27N98W and into NE Mexico near 26N100W. 
Otherwise...the western periphery of a surface ridge prevails with
gentle to moderate SE winds expected through Wednesday night.

Overall tranquil conditions persist across the Caribbean basin
this morning as water vapor imagery indicates upper level dry air
and strong subsidence to the E of a middle to upper level trough 
over the NE Caribbean with axis extending from 23N60W to a base 
near 15N67W. Latest scatterometer data depicts generally moderate
to fresh trades across the basin with slightly stronger winds 
occurring within close proximity to the coast of Colombia S of 
14N between 73W-77W. Satellite imagery shows isolated trade wind 
showers across Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the US/UK Virgin 
Islands...while the remainder of the basin remains generally 
precipitation-free. Similar weather conditions are forecast 
through Friday as surface ridging remains anchored to the N across
the SW North Atlc region.

Fresh NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal 
waters this morning. Winds will diminish slightly today into 
Thursday as the ridging to the N weakens. Isolated showers are 
forecast to continue through Thursday as the E-NE flow persists.

A broad 1024 mb surface high centered near 30N62W extends 
influence across much of the SW North Atlc generally W of 50W. A 
slight weakness in the ridging is evident as a cold front enters 
the discussion area in the central Atlc near 32N33W and extends 
W-SW to 26N45W then becomes stationary to 23N61W. Scattered 
showers and isolated tstms are occurring within 120 nm either side
of the front N of 30N. Isolated showers are occurring elsewhere 
within 90 nm either side of the front S of 30N between 34W-61W. 
Farther east...another weakening boundary is analyzed as a 
surface trough from 32N28W to 24N36W. Isolated showers are 
possible within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. Finally... 
E-SE of the Windward Islands...a surface trough analyzed from 
05N57W to 13N56W is providing focus for scattered showers and 
isolated tstms from 04N-18N between 45W-62W. This activity is
likely enhanced due to a middle to upper level axis noted on water
vapor imagery over a portion of the central Atlc and NE Caribbean

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-Jan-2017 09:50:33 UTC