000
AXNT20 KNHC 012108
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu May 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to
06N20W to 02N30W. The ITCZ continues from 02N30W to 01N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is active from 00n to 07N between
east of 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf. Latest
scatterometer and buoy data indicate gentle to moderate SE winds
across the central and western Gulf, between the high pressure
and lower pressure over Texas and Mexico. Combined seas in this 
area are 3 to 5 ft. The high pressure is supporting generally 
calm to light breezes across the eastern Gulf, where seas are 1 
to 3 ft. A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the 
coastal waters off the Sabine Pass in the northwest Gulf. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures in Texas and Mexico will tighten, and fresh to
strong pulsing winds in the western half of the Gulf will
develop tonight into the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds will
prevail in the eastern half of the basin. Winds will pulse to
strong speeds nightly near and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula due to local effects induced by a thermal trough. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent buoy observations and scatterometer data indicates
moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean
off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, and fresh winds
funneling off the coast of Cabo Beata on the south coast of
Hispaniola. These winds are active between weak high pressure centered
north of the area near Bermuda and lower pressure over Colombia.
Combined seas are 3 to 5 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate 
easterly winds are noted elsewhere with 2 to 4 ft seas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are active over teh Windward Passage 
ahead of an upper trough, but elsewhere no significant shower or 
thunderstorm activity is noted at this time. 

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area is 
expected to slide eastward and weaken on Thu, reducing the areal 
coverage and limiting these winds to the SE Caribbean by Thu 
evening. Showers and thunderstorms currently affecting the Mona 
and Windward Passages as well as Hispaniola adjacent waters will 
amplify tonight into Thu as a surface trough develops N of 
Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between this feature and a weak
ridge will also support moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee 
Cuba, NW Caribbean and the Windward Passage Thu night into Sat 
night. Gentle to moderate trades are expected basin-wide the 
remainder forecast period, except for fresh winds in the south- 
central Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad high pressure centered near Bermuda dominates the western
Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh E
winds south of the high pressure along the north coast of
Hispaniola. Moderate E to SE winds are evident elsewhere south of
24N and west of 55W. Recent altimeter and buoy data show combined
seas of 5 to 8 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to
5 ft combined seas are noted closer into the ridge, north of 24N
and west of 55W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active
across the southern Bahamas, ahead of an upper trough approaching
from the west.

A pair of cold fronts are analyzed farther east. One from 30N45W
to 25N60W, and the other from Azores to 30N34W to 26N38W. An 
earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong SW
winds within 90 nm east of the first front, north of 28N. 
Concurrent altimeter data indicated combined seas of 6 to 8 ft 
near these fronts, north of 28N. Gentle to moderate winds and 4
to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east,
fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted over the
eastern Atlantic east of 35W, to the south of strong high
pressure centered east of the Azores.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure is expected to 
slide eastward and weaken on Thu while a surface trough develops 
just N of Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
the trough will support E-SE winds of the same magnitude E of 
the trough and NE-E moderate to fresh winds W of the trough. The 
trough will also amplify the area of showers and tstms currently 
affecting the southern Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank. The 
trough is forecast to become a weak low, which will track NE Fri 
through Sat, and open back into a trough while exiting the area 
Sat afternoon. Locally strong and gusty winds are possible to 
develop in the northern semicircle of the low within this period.

$$
Christensen