Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 261051

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.


A tropical wave has an axis extending from 09N21W to 00N22W. The 
wave is moving W at 15 kt. The wave is located in an area of low 
wind shear. TPW imagery shows the wave is situated in an area of 
deep layer moisture. Despite this there is no significant 
convection currently associated with this wave.

A tropical wave located in the W Atlc has an axis extending from 
12N49W to 03N52W. The wave is moving W at 20 to 25 kt. The wave 
is located in an area of moderate wind shear. TPW imagery shows 
the wave is situated in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered 
moderate convection is present from 07N to 10N between 48W and 

A tropical wave over the western Atlc has an axis extending from 
14N54W to 05N58W. The wave is moving W at 20 kt. Strong wind 
shear and Saharan dry air enveloping the wave are both inhibiting 

A tropical wave is passing over the SW Caribbean. The wave has an
axis extending from 14N83W across Costa Rica to EPAC waters near 
05N83W. The wave is moving W at 20 kt. TPW imagery shows the wave 
is situated in an area of deep layer moisture. However, strong 
vertical wind shear is inhibiting the development of convection in
the vicinity of this wave, except for in the vicinity of the 
Monsoon Trough, where numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is seen near Panama from 08N to 11N between 78W and 


The Monsoon Trough enters the tropical Atlc from Guinea Bissau in
W Africa near 12N16W and continues to 08N18W to 07N20W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N24W to 04N30W to 06N37W to 08N47W. Aside from 
the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 10N
between 16W and 20W and also from 04N to 07N between 31W and 35W.



An area of strong upper-level convergence resides over the Gulf. 
This area of convergence lies to the W of an upper-level trough 
extending S along the East Coast to the United States. A weakening
warm front extends from the Florida Keys into the SE Gulf to end 
at 23N86W. The front is expected to dissipate by this evening. 
Strong subsidence over the gulf is putting the damper on any 
significant convection over the Gulf as well as the vicinity of 
the front. Weak high pressure has settled over the NE Gulf. Light
to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high. Moderate 
to fresh SE to S return flow has already developed over the 
Western Gulf ahead of a cold front pushing southward into Texas
and Oklahoma. Similar conditions are expected to continue over 
the Gulf through Sunday.


A tropical wave is exiting the SW Caribbean. See the tropical 
waves section for more details on this system. Otherwise, high 
pressure over the central Atlc ridges SW across the eastern 
Caribbean Sea. The ridge supports fresh to strong easterly winds 
across the east and central Caribbean and near gale force winds 
along the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ESE winds are over 
the western part of the basin, except for S of 11N, where winds 
are lighter in the vicinity of the monsoon trough which passes
just to the S over the Eastern Pacific. Fresh to near gale winds 
will persist over the central Caribbean through Friday, then 
diminish on Saturday. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are 
expected over the Gulf of Honduras at night through Monday night.


Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will continue over the 
island under the influence of broad high pressure over the Central
Atlc. Model guidance continues to show limited moisture across 
the region through Sunday evening as upper-level convergence and 
mid- level subsidence associated with a mid to upper-level ridge 
extending NE from the Caribbean remains in place.


A cold front enters the forecast area over the SW N Atlc near 
32N71W. The front extends SW to just N of Grand Bahama Island at 
27N78W, then continues as a weakening stationary front to the 
Florida Keys. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms is found 
just NE of the Northern Bahamas along and up to 30 nm SE of the 
front to the E of 78W. Fresh to strong winds are noted W of the 
front to the N of 29N. E of the front to 65W winds are fresh to 
strong N of 27N. A 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N49W 
currently dominates the remainder of the Central and Western Atlc.
A weakening frontal boundary crosses the NE forecast waters from 
32N15W to 25N28W to 25N36W. This front will continue to weaken and
dissipate by Saturday evening. Three tropical waves are located 
over the Atlc between 21W and 58W. Please refer to the tropical 
waves section for more details.

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Page last modified: Friday, 26-May-2017 10:52:00 UTC