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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 021756
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
TROPICAL STORM FRED IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 30.9W AT 02/1500 UTC 
OR ABOUT 455 NM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING WNW AT 9 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 28W-31W. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N43W TO 17N44W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W AND 
REMAINS LARGELY LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 
40W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N76W TO 18N73W MOVING W AT 25 KT. 
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH RELATIVELY BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING 
BETWEEN 70W-78W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N88W TO 17N90W MOVING W AT 20 KT. 
THE WAVE LIES WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 
28N76W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE 
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
12N16W TO 14N26W THEN RESUMES NEAR 13N32W TO 07N51W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N51W TO 
06N54W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE 
ALONG 44W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N10W TO 14N22W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 32W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 
28N95W. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IS PROVIDING MUCH OF 
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR THE MAXIMUM AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING 
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-
30N BETWEEN 89W-96W. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER 
SOUTHERN GEORGIA THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK 1017 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 
30N84W. SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS W-SW TO NEAR 27N89W WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS SE GEORGIA...AND THE 
BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 84W-90W. 
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS PERSIST AS 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF 
THE SE CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
CENTERED NEAR 17N80W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE BASIN W OF 74W. 
ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE 
LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF 15N BETWEEN 79W-86W IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL 
WAVE ALONG 75W IS HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON THE CONVECTION WHICH 
IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND 
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. FINALLY... 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST 
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE USUAL HIGHER WINDS NOTED GENERALLY 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA COAST 
BETWEEN 66W-76W.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DUE LARGELY TO RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT AND 
OVERALL STABILITY PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED 
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER THE 
TAMPA BAY REGION NEAR 28N83W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO 
NEAR 25N61W. MUCH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY 
EXTENDING FROM 31N67W TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N81W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N-33N 
BETWEEN 60W-67W...AND FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 73W-82W. TO THE SOUTH 
OF THIS ACTIVITY...A PAIR OF HIGHS...ONE A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 
28N76W...AND ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N67W ARE PROVIDING 
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH 
ATLC. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 27N BETWEEN 38W-52W. THE 
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A WEAK 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N53W WITH 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 26N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
27N52W TO 34N40W. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N21W TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 20N51W. FINALLY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR 
THE EASTERN ATLC IS TROPICAL STORM FRED AS IT TRACKS WNW ACROSS 
THE OPEN TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Sep-2015 17:56:58 UTC