Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 220536

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1236 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.



A strong cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast
overnight with northwest winds increasing to 30-35 kt shortly 
after sunrise today with seas building to 11 ft. By Sunday 
afternoon, northwest winds of 30-40 KT spread over the northern 
half of the Gulf with seas building to 16 ft. By late Sunday, the 
broad fetch of gale-force winds builds seas to 20 ft. For more 
information, please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under 


The same cold front noted above will sweep eastward into the
southwest Atlantic with southwest winds increasing to 30-35 kt
north of 31N west of 77W by this evening and seas building to 13 
ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near 09N14W
to 04N20W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 02N32W to 01S44W. 
Isolated showers prevail within 200 nm on either side of the
boundaries between 15W-31W. 



Fair weather prevails across the basin at this time. A deepening
low pressure is centered over Northern Texas extending a cold 
front to northern Mexico. This system will continue moving east 
extending across the northern Gulf waters during the next 24 hours
supporting the gale-force winds that will develop in this area 
mainly west of the front. Please refer to the section above for 
more details. At this time, scatterometer data depicts moderate to
fresh southerly winds across the basin. Expect for the front to 
sweep rapidly east and extend from the Florida Big Bend into the 
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico by the afternoon hours. Conditions
will improve gradually from west to east by early next week as a
surface ridge builds in the wake of the front.


A surface high is centered to the north of Hispaniola and extends
across the basin. To the east, the tail end of a dissipating cold
front extends over the Virgin Islands with isolated showers.
Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the
basin except west of 80W, where moderate to fresh southerly winds
prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours for the pressure 
gradient to increase across the west Caribbean as a cold front
approaches. Little change is expected elsewhere.


Northwesterly winds and dry air in subsidence prevails over 
island at this time. Hispaniola. These conditions will prevail 
through the next 24 to 48 hours.


A 1017 mb surface high prevails across the west Atlantic centered
near 23N68W. To the east, a frontal system was analyzed as a cold
front extending from 32N43W to 27N48W, then as a stationary front
from that point to a 1014 mb low centered near 25N52W. A weakening
cold front extends from the low to 19N62W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails within 100 nm on either side of the cold front
between 39W-48W. A surface ridge prevails across the eastern
Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 32N25W. Expect
for the surface low and weakening front to dissipate within the
next 24 hours. The cold front will continue moving east with
convection. A new cold front will exit Eastern US by late
Sunday. Gale force winds will develop in the west Atlantic as this
boundary moves through. Please refer to the section above for

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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Jan-2017 05:37:01 UTC