Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 130549

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1249 AM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

A cold front extends across the SW North Atlc from 32N76W SW to
the Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral and into the Gulf of
Mexico. Near gale to gale force winds are occurring N of 30N on
either side of the front as depicted on the latest scatterometer
passes from 13/0144 UTC and 13/0240 UTC. The front is forecast to
sweep eastward through Wednesday and eventually lift N of the
discussion area by Thursday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 
06N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
06N14W to 05N30W to 02N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is within 210 nm N of the axis between 24W-52W.


The Special Features cold front mentioned above extends across the
central Florida peninsula and into the basin near 27N82W extending
W to 25N90W to the NE Mexico coast near 25N97W. A relatively dry
and convection-free front...it is providing moderate to fresh N-NW
winds E of 90W and gentle to moderate N winds W of 90W this
evening. A surface ridge influences much of the remainder of the
basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near Tuxpan and a 1026
mb high centered across western Texas. As the cold front shifts
eastward through Wednesday night...ridging will follow and provide
light and variable winds on Wednesday and the re-establishment of
southerly return flow Thursday.

A stationary front extends from the Windward Passage S-SW to the 
coast of western Panama near 10N82W. Widely scattered showers and
tstms are occurring generally within 120 nm either side of the
front. Much of this convection is supported aloft by a divergent 
upper level pattern on the northern periphery of an upper level 
anticyclone anchored over eastern Panama near 09N78W. East of the
anticyclonic circulation...dry northerly flow prevails providing 
overall stability to the central and eastern Caribbean this 
evening. Overall gentle to occasional moderate trades are expected
through the overnight period into Wednesday E of the front...while
the front is forecast to gradually weaken through Thursday.

Isolated showers are possible across western portions of the
island this evening as a stationary front lies to the W across 
the Turks and Caicos through the Windward Passage to Jamaica. The
front is expected to remain stationary and begin weakening 
through Thursday.

Water vapor imagery indicates middle to upper level troughing 
over the eastern CONUS and western North Atlc waters supporting
the Special Features cold front extending from 32N76W SW to Cape
Canaveral Florida. The reinforcing cold front is expected to merge
with a stationary front on Thursday that is currently analyzed to
the east from 32N58W to the Turks and Caicos islands to the 
Windward Passage region. The reinforcing cold front remains
relatively convection-free...while isolated showers are occurring
within 120 nm either side of the stationary front. Farther 
east...a surface ridge influences much of the central and eastern
Atlc...anchored by a 1034 mb high centered S of the Azores near
36N27W. However...within the southeastern periphery of the ridge
nearing the Cape Verde Islands...a cold front extends from the
coast of Africa near 19N16W to 22N34W. Primary area of concern
with the front is the large area of strong to near gale force NE
winds generally N of the front E of 33W. The pressure gradient
associated with this wind field is expected to relax by Friday.

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-Dec-2017 05:49:54 UTC