000 AXNT20 KNHC 151817 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Jul 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93): Latest observations indicate the 1014 mb low has came onshore near Flagler Beach, Florida. Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and west of the center over central Florida. This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula later today and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf. Regardless of development, Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of this week. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours and also during the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 10N southward, and moving westward around 20 kt. No significant convection is found near this wave. , An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 19N southward and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen near Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 10N27W and a 1011 mb low near 06N36W to 06N40W. An ITCZ continues northwestward from 06N40W to north of French Guiana at 08N52W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed south of the monsoon trough near the coast of Senegal and Gambia, and near the low and ITCZ from 04N to 08N between 32W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough curves westward from the Florida Panhandle to near New Orleans. Enhanced by divergent flow aloft, scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms are occurring across the north- central, east-central and Florida straits. A 1019 mb high dominates the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are present at the north-central Gulf, while gentle to moderate NE to SE to S winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure will drift slowly W-NW and settle across the northwestern Gulf through Thu. A weak 1014 mb low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wed. It will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp upper level trough across eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage continues to support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and across the Windward Passage. No significant convection is noted elsewhere across the basin this morning. Surface high pressure north of the area along 29N is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean south of 16N and across the Gulf of Honduras. These winds are sustaining moderate to rough seas, peaking near 9 ft off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. Saharan Air accompanies a tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean, where a few showers are seen across the Leeward Islands. For the forecast, a weak ridge along 29N and E of 75W will gradually build westward across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of America through Sat. Fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean will expand across most of the central portions of the basin Wed through Sat as the Atlantic high pressure shifts north of the area. Fresh E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Thu through Sat. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through the period while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail in the NW portions. A pair of tropical waves will move through the basin through Fri, mainly producing active weather across the SW Caribbean waters Fri through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1014 mb low pressure system (AL93) centered off Cape Canaveral near 29N79.5W continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 77W and across the NW Bahamas and the Florida coastal waters south of 29N. Recent satellite scatterometer data captured fresh to strong S to SW winds within 90 across the south and east portions of this feature. To the east, a 1025 mb high is centered near 31N57W, and extends a ridge W-SW to 75W. Farther east, a cold front extends from the NE Atlantic and enters the area near 31N39W to 29N50W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm ahead of this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds and moderate seas are found north of 28N and between 35W and 50W associated with this front. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a persistent subtropical ridge that supports moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas to 5 ft west of 60W. To the south of the ridge, mainly moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of 26N and between 25W and 60W. Lastly, in the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere within the ridge, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak ridge along 29N extends from the central Atlantic to 75W this morning, while weak low pressure of 1014 mb is just offshore Titusville, Florida. The low is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and then reach the NE Gulf by Wed. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the NE and north- central Gulf. High pressure over the central Atlantic will then build westward across the region and across Florida late tonight through Sat in the wake of the low pressure. Active thunderstorms are expected in association with this system over the waters west of 76W through tonight. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge building westward and the low pressure will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the Bahamas and through the NW zones today through early Thu. $$ Chan
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 15-Jul-2025 18:47:05 UTC