000
AXNT20 KNHC 112347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun May 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2335 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 
13N16W south-southwestward to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 
06N20W to 03N35W and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed south of 08N and east of 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida to 27N90W,
where it becomes a stationary front to the southern Texas coast.
No deep convection is noted near this boundary. The remainder of
the basin is dominated by a weak high pressure system over the
southern United States. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of
3-4 ft are occurring off Yucatan. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and 2-4 ft seas are evident in the rest of the
western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from near Sarasota, 
Florida to the central Gulf near 27.5N90W then continues as a warm
front to the coast of Texas near 27N98W. Moderate to fresh NE 
winds follow the front W of 90W. The eastern portion of the front 
will move SE and reach from the Straits of Florida to the central 
Gulf by early Sun where it will stall again and weaken, with its 
remnants lifting back N as a warm front through Sun night. 
Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate for the end of the 
weekend into early next week, with another front or trough 
possibly impacting the western Gulf Mon night. High pressure 
should rebuild across the basin mid-week, with moderate to fresh 
SE-S winds, locally strong. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural 
fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay 
of Campeche. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near the Yucatan 
Peninsula each evening through the period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean and 
maintains moderate trade winds over most of the basin. The 
exception is the Gulf of Honduras, where fresh to strong east to 
southeast winds are present. Seas are slight to moderate across 
the basin, with peak seas to 6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. 

Stable atmospheric conditions under a broad anticyclone aloft 
prevail across most of the basin west of 75W, except in the far 
southwestern part of the sea where scattered showers are noted. 
This is where the eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon 
trough exists. 

For the forecast, high pressure N of the basin will support fresh to
strong winds near the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh winds
in the south-central and in the southeastern Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the remainder of the 
weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten early next week, 
with fresh to strong trades in the south-central and northwestern
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh elsewhere. Seas will build next
week as a result of the increasing winds. Meanwhile, haze due to
agricultural fires in Central America continues across much of 
the NW Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N71W to near Port Saint Lucie, 
Florida. A few showers are seen on satellite imagery ahead of the 
boundary. Fresh to strong SW winds are found N of 27N and ahead of
the front to 65W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. 

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad 1030 mb high
pressure system centered SW of the Azores. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa result in
fresh to strong northerly winds north of 16N and east of 30W, with
the strongest winds off Morocco. Seas in the area described are
6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach 
from 31N64W to near the Florida Keys early Sun, then from 31N59W 
to the central Bahamas early Mon, dissipating from 28N55W to 
23N70W early Tue. High pressure will build in behind the front for
the start of next week. Fresh to strong southerly winds and 
building seas are forecast offshore N Florida by mid-week ahead of
another possible cold front. That front may reach from 31N76W to 
27N80W early Thu.


$$
Delgado