764 
AXNT20 KNHC 130444
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Jul 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0425 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near
this wave. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 13N and between 41W and 51W.

The tropical wave previously analyzed in the central Caribbean has
been removed based on wave guidance diagnostics and TPW.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are found south of 21N and west of 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 20N16W, continuing southwestward to 12N25W to a
1014 mb low pres near 11N41W and to 12N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from 03N to 12N and between 33W and 41W.

...GULF OF AMERICA... 

An upper level low over the NW Gulf produces a few showers over 
the north-central Gulf waters. A broad subtropical ridge reaches
into the Gulf of America, resulting in moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 3-5 ft south of 25N and between 87W and 95W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure prevails across the NE Gulf
tonight, producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds across much of
the rest of the basin. The high will drift slowly westward and
into the NW Gulf through Wed. This will allow a broad area of low
pressure expected to form across the Atlantic east of Florida, to
shift westward across Florida and into the eastern Gulf on Tue, 
then continue to drift westward into the central Gulf through 
Thu, accompanied by active weather. Environmental conditions could
become marginally conducive for the gradual development of this 
system by mid to late next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in the
lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage. Meanwhile, a broad
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the
Caribbean, supporting strong to near gale-force easterly trade
winds in the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a
recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 8-10
ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas
are found elsewhere south of 20N. In the rest of the NW Caribbean,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, 1021 mb Atlantic high pressure along 70W will
shift NE and collapse through Sun morning, leaving a weak 
Atlantic ridge east of 75W through Mon. High pressure will then 
build westward across the region and into Florida Tue through Thu.
This pattern will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong 
trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through 
Tue then expand across much of the central basin late Tue through 
Thu. Fresh E winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras 
through the middle of the week, pulsing to locally strong Sun 
night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in 
the eastern Caribbean through the weekend while gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail NW portions. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters. An upper level low is noted between
Bermuda and Puerto Rico, sustaining a few showers and thunderstorms.
Latest satellite-derived wind data show moderate to fresh easterly
winds south of 28N and between 25W and 60W. Seas in these waters 
are 4-6 ft. A tighter pressure gradient in the eastern Atlantic 
forces fresh to locally strong N-NE winds north of 19N and east of
25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, 1021 mb Atlantic high pressure near
29N70W will shift NE and collapse through Sun morning, leaving a 
weak Atlantic ridge along 30N and east of 75W through Mon. High 
pressure will then build westward across the region and into 
Florida Tue through Thu. A broad area of low pressure is expected 
to form over the next several days offshore of the southeastern 
U.S. coast and build into the waters north of the Bahamas. 
Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for the
gradual development of this system by mid to late next week as 
the system moves generally westward across the Florida Peninsula 
and over the eastern and north- central portion of the Gulf. 
Regardless of development, active weather is expected over the 
waters west of 75W late Sun through Tue associated with this 
system. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge building 
westward and the area of low pressure will support moderate to 
fresh SE to S winds across the Bahamas and through the NW zones 
Tue through early Thu.

$$
Delgado