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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
104 AM EST SAT DEC 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

A strong ridge is across the Gulf of Mexico and inland Mexico
where is anchored by a 1032 mb high near 21N98W. The ridge builds behind
a cold front that currently extends across the Straits of Florida
to northwest Cuba near 22N84W to 22N987W where it stalls and
continues to the SW Gulf along 22N91W to a 1018 mb low near 21N92W
to 19N92W. A very strong pressure gradient between the ridge and
the front is producing a large area of minimal to strong NW gale
force winds from 18N to 21N between 94W and 96W. This is
generating a large area of high seas 16 to 21 ft. A 1036 mb high
pressure center over Arkansas also anchors the ridge, and is
forecast to shift eastward during the next 24 hours. As this
occurs the front will sink slightly southward, and the pressure
gradient will gradually decrease across the NW Gulf. However, gale
force NW winds are expected to continue through Saturday evening
offshore of Veracruz, Mexico. Please read the High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the African Continent reaching
the Atlantic Ocean near 10N18W. The ITCZ begins near 05N20W and
continue along 03N38W to 02N50W. A surface trough extends from
5N-10N along 33W and another from 05N-09N along 45W. Active
convection continues along the ITCZ, where scattered moderate to
strong is observed from 02N-08N between 13W and 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The main concern for the Gulf continue to be a gale warning over
the SW basin. A strong ridge across the Gulf of Mexico builds
behind a cold front that extends across the Straits of Florida to
NW Cuba near 22N84W to 22N987W where it stalls and continues to
the SW Gulf along 22N91W to a 1018 mb low near 21N92W to 19N92W. A
very strong pressure gradient between the ridge and the front is
producing a large area of minimal to strong NW gale force winds
from 18N to 21N between 94W and 96W. This is generating a large
area of high seas 16 to 21 ft. Gale force NW winds are expected
to continue through Saturday evening. Please refer to special
features for further details. Broken to overcast cloudiness along
with scattered to isolated showers are S of 28N E of 90W and in
the SW Gulf S of 22N. Fresh to near gale force north-northeast
winds are across the eastern Gulf waters S of 28N. The front is
expected to meander across the southern Straits of Florida and
northwest Cuba this weekend with northerly winds slowly
diminishing below gale force late Sat in the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper ridge prevails over the basin with strong dry air
subsidence supporting fair weather over the NW Caribbean. Over the
central basin, a surface trough supported by a middle level
inverted trough extends from 16N73W to 10N72W. This surface trough
is under a upper level diffluent environment that supports
scattered showers S of Hispaniola between 66W and 75W. In the SW
Caribbean, the monsoon trough crossing Costa Rica all the way to N
Colombia support scattered heavy showers S of 12N W of 79W. Fresh
to locally strong NE to E winds are occurring S of 16N between 69W
and 80W. The trough will continue west across the basin and enter
Central America early Sun. Moderate to fresh NE trades prevail
across the remainder of the basin, except fresh NE winds in the
Yucatan Channel near an approaching cold front. Fresh to
occasional strong trades are expected across the south-central
Caribbean mainly north of Colombia tonight through late Saturday
with trades increasing slightly through the remainder of the
weekend as the strong ridge affecting the Gulf of Mexico shifts
eastward into the western Atlantic. The cold front will meander
across the Yucatan Channel, with associated conditions across the
Gulf spreading modestly into NW portions.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island due to strong subsidence
of dry air. A modest increase in low level moisture will spread
westward across the area tonight and should lead to passing
tradewind showers across the area. Generally fair conditions are
expected through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N63W
through the NW Bahamas to northwestern Cuba. Broken to overcast cloudiness
and isolated showers observed west of the front. Ahead of this
front, a dissipating stationary front extends from 28N50W to
26N68W to the central Bahamas to northern Cuba, which will be
overtaken by the cold front within the next 24 hours. The remainder
of the basin, is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1025
mb high centered near 36N29W. Expect the cold front in the west
Atlantic to continue moving east of the Bahamas while it drifts
slightly SE across the Bahamas. As the surface ridge behind this
cold front begins to shift eastward into the Atlantic overnight
and Sat, look for increasing NE winds and building seas behind
the cold front. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos


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