000
AXNT20 KNHC 040440
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat May 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0435 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southward to 05N18W.
Scattered moderate convection is found from 01N to 05N and east of
30W and also from 03N to 07N and west of 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Divergence aloft over Texas and Tamaulipas support strong
thunderstorms generally inland. However, some of the storm
activity spill into the western Gulf waters, especially west of
94W. Broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf
of Mexico. Moderate to locally strong easterly winds are noted
south of 25N and west of 90W, with the strongest winds occurring
off Yucatan. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Light to gentle 
winds and slight seas prevail in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered over Florida and lower pressures in the western Gulf 
will support moderate to fresh winds over the majority of the Gulf
of Mexico into late next week. Fresh to locally strong winds will
pulse at night through late next week near the northern and 
western Yucatan Peninsula due to a thermal trough. Haze due to 
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and
west-central Gulf sections.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic to
the NW Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is analyzed from the
Leeward Islands to near the coast of NE Colombia. Divergence 
aloft and plenty of tropical moisture support scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W, also impacting Puerto Rico
and the US Virgin Islands with heavy downpours. The heavy rainfall
has resulted in localized flooding in Puerto Rico. See local 
weather advisories for more information. Mariners should also be 
aware of the potential for strong gusts and locally rough seas in 
the area of showers and thunderstorms. A resent scatterometer 
satellite pass captured strong to near gale-force winds 
associated with the thunderstorms affecting the Leeward Islands 
and nearby waters. 

The rest of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly winds
and seas of 3-5 ft are noted in the SE Caribbean, while gentle to
moderate winds and 2-4 ft are observed in the NW Caribbean and
Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic is
supporting moderate to Moderate to locally fresh trades over the
SE Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh E winds in the NW
Caribbean will continue through Mon, then gradually increase next
week. Similar winds will occur nocturnally in the Windward 
Passage through Mon. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected 
elsewhere through the forecast period. Upper-level divergence 
east of a trough that extends from the western Atlantic south to 
the north- central Caribbean continues to support numerous
thunderstorms north of 14N between 65W and 74W. This activity is 
moving eastward, and is producing gusty winds and frequent 
lightning. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The western Atlantic is under the influence of a weak subtropical
ridge located between Bermuda the SE US coast. A generally dry
airmass maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions west of 70W.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are
found south of 27N and west of 60W. Farther east, a surface trough
extends from 28N49W to the Leeward Islands, producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm on both sides of
the trough axis. 

The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a
1022 mb high pressure system near the island of Madeira. Moderate
to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present south of a line
from the westernmost of the Canary Islands to the Windward
Islands. The strongest winds are occurring off Western Sahara.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends from 
29N54W to just N of Puerto Rico. S of 25N and W of the trough, 
moderate NE to E winds are prevalent. Numerous thunderstorms are E
of the trough, extend E to a line from 30N44W to the Windward 
Islands. Some of this activity may be accompanied by strong gusty 
winds and frequent lightning. The trough will shift eastward 
through the weekend as a cold front drops southward over the 
eastern and central waters. The front will shift east of the area 
Mon. High pressure will then settle over the area through Wed 
night. Fresh south winds may develop offshore northeast Florida 
Wed night

$$
Delgado