Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 220604

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.


Hurricane Maria centered near 21.0N 70.2W at 22/0300 UTC, or 
about 75 nm NNE of Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, or about 60 
nm ESE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 7 kt. Minimum central 
pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with 
gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of 
the center except. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere 
within 240 nm of the center, except 300 nm SE quadrant. Maria's 
eye will gradually move away from the northern coast of the 
Dominican Republic and then move near or just east of the Turks 
and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas on Friday. Please see
the latest NHC Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC and the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for the complete details.

Tropical Storm Jose centered near 39.5N 68.4W at 22/0300 UTC, or 
about 120 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts, moving W at 2 kt. 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained 
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Dry and stable air prevails 
near the center as Jose is over cold SSTs, however some scattered 
moderate convection is within 135 nm E of Jose and 300 nm W of it. Jose
is forecast to meander well offshore of the coast of southeastern
New England during the next few days. Please see the latest NHC 
Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and 
the complete NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for additional details.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 18N40W to 03N41W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The tropical wave is 
located in a region of strong vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW 
show abundant dry air in its environment, which is supporting a 
lack of convection at this time.


The monsoon trough axis extends from the African coast near 
11N16W to 07N22W to 06N30W. The intertropical convergence zone 
axis extends from 06N30W to 08N38W, then resumes from 09N42W to 
11N50W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 
08N between 26W and 31W.



High pressure along the E CONUS extends a ridge S-SW across the
Gulf waters and provides ENE light to moderate flow E of 90W and
ESE winds of the same magnitude W of 90W. Dry air subsidence from
aloft prevails across most of the basin, thus supporting fair
weather. However, shallow moisture and diffluence aloft in the
central Gulf support isolated showers also associated with the
remnants of a surface trough. No major changes expected during the
next two days.


The core of Hurricane Maria remains N of central Hispaniola,
however the outer rainbands continue over Puerto Rico and
Dominican Republic, supporting heavy rainfall resulting in 
continuous flash flooding in these Islands. This convection
extends to 15N between 64W and 72W where winds have diminished to
fresh, however seas are up to 10 ft. Scattered to isolated showers
are in the SW basin associated with the EPAC monsoon trough.
Otherwise, mainly moderate trades prevail across the basin which 
will persist for the start of the upcoming weekend.


A hurricane warning prevails for the northern coast of the 
Dominican Republic, except W of Puerto Plata to the border with 
Haiti where a tropical Storm Warning remains in effect. A 
dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves 
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal 
tide levels in the hurricane warning area, and 1 to 3 ft in the 
tropical storm warning area as well as over northern Haiti. Very 
heavy rainfall will continue across Hispaniola, currently 
concentrated across the Dominican Republic, but spreading westward
across Haiti. These conditions are likely to persist into the 
first part of the upcoming weekend. Please refer to the special
features section for more information on Hurricane Maria.


Please refer to Special Features section for more information on 
Hurricane Maria. Elsewhere, a surface trough was analyzed from
29N75W to Andros Island in the Bahamas. The remainder of the 
basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high 
pressure. Farther E, the remnants of tropical cyclone Lee are 
centered near 22N49W with elongated troughing extending N of the 
remnant low to 30N and S of the low to 16N52W. Scattered moderate
convection and tstms are from 22N to 25N between 48W and 51W. No 
redevelopment of the remnants is anticipated during the next 
couple of days while the surface low gradually dissipates.

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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Sep-2017 06:06:17 UTC