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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 281722
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 7N11W THEN ALONG 4N12W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W. THE 
ITCZ COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E 
OF 16W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 48W-52W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E CONUS INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC 
AND NW CARIBBEAN. REMNANT MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE S GULF 
IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COULD STILL 
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO 
VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 24N94W WITH 
REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E 
ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT NE OF THE 
AREA TONIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW 
TO NE MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT SE ON SUN WITH A SURFACE 
HIGH DEVELOPING NEAR TAMPA BAY ON MON AFTERNOON. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC 
AND ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL 
CUBA NEAR 22N80W ALONG 19N85W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 
16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 
NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 19N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA NW OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES 
THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 21N78W 
20N80W TO 18N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA 
PASSAGE INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT 
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO 
THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE CARIBBEAN E 
OF THE ABOVE LIE WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL 
MOVE E ACROSS CUBA REACHING FROM FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 
HONDURAS ON SUN THEN LOSE IDENTITY FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS 
ON MON. FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA 
INCREASING TO STRONG DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
THROUGH MON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON.

HISPANIOLA...                                                
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS 
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD POP UP THROUGH THE 
EVENING HOURS TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FOR HAITI EARLY SUN 
AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THEN SPREAD ACROSS 
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS WILL INCREASE 
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUN NIGHT FOR HAITI SPREADING EASTWARD 
INTO MON AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                             
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE 
REGION NEAR 32N70W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N75W TO THE N COAST OF 
CUBA NEAR 22N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 
30N69W ALONG 24N73W TO 21N77W WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS W 
OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. REMNANT MOISTURE IS LINGERING OVER THE AREA W OF THE FRONT 
AND COULD STILL PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER. BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE NE TO BEYOND 
32N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE 
N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N49W TO N OF 
PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N67W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
E/CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC JUST E OF THE LESSER 
ANTILLES SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE 
AREA NEAR 32N34W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N36W TO 25N39W WHERE IT 
DISSIPATES TO 23N45W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE ATLC E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH 
JUST E OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA 
TO E CUBA THIS EVENING THEN FROM 32N60W ALONG 24N65W TO HAITI ON 
SUN EVENING AND FROM 32N53W 21N65W W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 
ON MON EVENING. THE E/CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL 
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD E ALONG 
27N ON SUN THEN SHIFT N ON MON AS A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS NEAR 
30N78W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW

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Page last modified: Saturday, 28-Mar-2015 17:22:52 UTC