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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191034
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 03N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 00N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDS ITS 
ASSOCIATED TROUGH S REACHING THE NW GULF. TO THE E...A BROAD 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REACHING THE E GULF AND 
ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. A DIFFLUENT FLOW  
PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
AND RIDGE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 24N BETWEEN 88W-93W. THIS CONVECTION IS 
ALSO ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 24N93W TO 
28N89W. A WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING 
FROM 27N94W TO 29N93W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO 
THIS BOUNDARY. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH WAS DEPICTED IN 
OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE SW GULF
...EXTENDING FROM 24N91W TO 19N92W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS 
ALONG THIS FEATURE. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE 
BASIN EXCEPT N OF 27N AND W OF 91W WHERE A NW FLOW DOMINATES. 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF TO DIMINISH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO 
ENTER THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS 
THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
AND DRY AIR PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES IS GENERATING 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN S 
OF 17 AND E OF 70W...AN UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW IS BRINGING MOIST 
AIR INTO THE AREA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES 
ARE OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN 
EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W-74W...WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS 
ARE DEPICTED. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH 
WINDS NOTED N OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 84W-87W. EXPECT SIMILAR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                    

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS 
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. IT BEGINS AS 
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N80W TO A 1013 
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N69W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WAS 
ANALYZED FROM 32N69W TO ANOTHER 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 
33N56W. FROM THIS POINT...THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES TO 24N44W. A COLD FRONT IS FROM 24N44W TO 31N23W.  
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 65W SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION N 
OF 29N BETWEEN 57W-63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED 
BY A BROAD 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N37W. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE W 
ATLANTIC TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MOVING E WITH 
CONVECTION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THE UNITED 
STATES COAST AND STALL ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC IN 48 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

ERA

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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Apr-2015 10:34:44 UTC