155 AXNT20 KNHC 150551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Jul 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0505 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93): Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of low pressure located just offshore of the east coast of Florida is gradually becoming better defined. However, the shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and tonight, then reach the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week. Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of this week. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours and also during the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A tropical wave is analyzed along 61W, extending across the Lesser Antilles, south of 20N and moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is enhancing the rainfall in NE South America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 10N25W and to 05N39W. The ITCZ extends from 05N39W to 07N48W and then from 07N51W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 200 nm on both sides between 25W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in the eastern Gulf waters associated with the low pressure system off eastern Florida (AL93). Mariners in the area can expect gusty winds, heavy downpours, lightning strikes and suddenly higher seas. Generally dry conditions are present elsewhere. At the surface, a 1020 mb high pressure centered south of Louisiana supports moderate to fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas south of a line from SE Texas to NE Yucatan. In the rest of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure has shifted into the N-central Gulf tonight, and extends a narrow ridge southeastward to the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds continue over the western Gulf, with mainly light winds elsewhere. The high pressure will drift slowly W-NW and into the NW Gulf through Thu. Elongated low pressure is across the Atlantic, extending from offshore of central Florida to offshore the southeastern U.S. coast. This system is forecast to move westward across Florida Tue and Tue night, and eventually emerge over the northeastern Gulf by early Wed. Environmental conditions appear favorable and some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and north- central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, will accompany this system. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft and tropical moisture result in scattered showers in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. High pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. This was noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. These winds are sustaining moderate to rough seas, peaking near 10 ft off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak ridge will continue N of the area along 29N and E of 75W into Tue. Fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean will expand across most of the central portions of the basin Wed through Fri night as Atlantic high pressure gradually builds westward across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of America. Fresh E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again Wed night through Sat. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through the period while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail in the NW portions. A pair of tropical waves will move through the basin tonight through Fri, mainly producing active weather across the SW Caribbean waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1014 mb low pressure system (AL93) centered off Cape Canaveral continues to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 75W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong southerly winds associated with this feature. Farther east, a cold front is along 30N in the central Atlantic and scattered showers are noted ahead of this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh W-NW winds and moderate seas are found north of 28N and between 35W and 50W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge that supports moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds and moderate seas west of 60W. Mainly moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are found south of 26N and between 25W and 60W. Lastly, in the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak ridge along 29N will continue E of 75W tonight into Tue. Elongated low pressure extending from offshore the southeastern U.S. coast to offshore of central Florida is expected to move westward across Florida Tue through Tue night, and eventually emerge over the northeastern Gulf of America by early Wed. Environmental conditions appear favorable and some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and north- central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week. High pressure over the central Atlantic will then build westward across the region and into Florida Tue night through Sat in the wake of the low pressure. Active thunderstorms are expected in association with this system over the waters west of 75W through Tue evening. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge building westward and the low pressure will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the Bahamas and through the NW zones Tue through early Thu. $$ Delgado
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 15-Jul-2025 06:40:09 UTC