799 AXNT20 KNHC 142238 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Jul 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47.5W from 03-20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 05-08N between 47-49W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58.5W from 19N southward to Guyana, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis, with thunderstorms ongoing over portions of Guyana. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania from 1010 mb low pressure near 19.5N15.5W to 10N22W to 05N137W. The ITCZ extends from 05N137W to 06N46W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 06.5N48W to near the coast of Suriname at 06N56.5W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-10N between 20W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00.5N-04.5N between 35W-45W. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean generally south of 12N and west of 81W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper level trough digging southwest into the area continues to produce scattered moderate convection over portions of the Gulf east of 86W. In the SW and W-central Gulf, scattered showers are present in convergent surface flow between a surface trough over the western Bay of Campeche and high pressure inland over Mexico. At the surface, a 1020 mb high pressure in the central Gulf near 26.5N88.5W is forcing moderate SE winds west of 92W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft west of 91W, and 1 to 3 ft east of 91W. For the forecast, weak high pressure continues across the NE Gulf, producing gentle to moderate SE to S winds over the western Gulf, and mainly light winds elsewhere. The high pressure will drift slowly westward and into the NW Gulf by Wed. In the meantime, elongated low pressure near the southeastern U.S. coast is forecast to move westward across Florida during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tue. Environmental conditions appear favorable and some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, will accompany this system. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for details on convection in the SW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between a ridge north of the region and the 1011 mb Colombia Low supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central, with 7 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere in the central Caribbean as well as in the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Mainly moderate trades and 3 to 5 ft seas are in the eastern Caribbean, with gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas in the NW Caribbean. Afternoon thunderstorms are noted near the southern coast of Cuba. For the forecast, a weak ridge will continue N of the area along 29N tonight into Tue. This will support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the south central Caribbean through Tue. These trades will expand across most of the central section of the basin Wed through Fri night. Fresh east winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again Wed night through Sat. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through the period while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail in the NW portions. A couple of tropical waves will move through the basin over the next few days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An elongated 1016 mb surface low center was analyzed near 29.5N78W. A middle to upper level low center is just north of the area and is digging southward into the area, and providing divergence aloft that supports scattered moderate to strong convection from 24N-29N between Florida and 76W. To the east, scattered showers dot the waters between 60W-73W due to an upper level trough. A cold front is in the central Atlantic just north of the discussion waters near 49W. Associated showers and thunderstorms extend into the waters north of 30N between 43W and 50W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge centered on a 1025 mb high near 29N54W, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas between 30W-60W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted 14N-30N between Africa and 30W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters, except south of the monsoon trough near the coast of Africa where they are locally fresh. Seas are 2 to 4 ft west of 67W, 3 to 4 ft from 26N-30N between 25W-57W along east to west ridging extending from and through the high center, and 4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak ridge will continue N of the area along 29N tonight into Tue. This will support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the south central Caribbean through Tue. These trades will expand across most of the central section of the basin Wed through Fri night. Fresh east winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and again Wed night through Sat. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through the period while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail in the NW portions. A couple of tropical waves will move through the basin over the next few days. $$ Lewitsky
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 15-Jul-2025 02:30:07 UTC