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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111044
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N15W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 8W-20W AND FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 20W-25W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. 
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO NE MEXICO. AT 11/0900 UTC A 
NEWLY DEVELOPED 1010 MB LOW IS IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W WITH 
THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 23N96W TO INLAND OVER 
MEXICO NEAR 20N96W AND E FROM THE LOW ALONG 29N92W OVER SW 
LOUISIANA TO 29N88W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-29N W OF 91W TO THE FRONT. THE 
SURFACE TROUGHS HAVE DISSIPATED. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 90W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS 
SHIFTING E ACROSS FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NE AND DISSIPATE 
LATE TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WED 
AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE GULF EXITING THE GULF LATE 
WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE 
AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES OF ISOLATED LOW 
LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 62W-83W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE 
W CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL THU THEN FROM 
CENTRAL CUBA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL AND 
DISSIPATE LATE SAT. 

HISPANIOLA...                                               
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS 
MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. 
ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU WHEN 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE APPROACH 
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC EARLY THU AND 
APPROACH HISPANIOLA FRI INCREASING SHOWERS FROM W TO E. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS 
THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W 
ATLC AND A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT 
EXTENDS FROM 31N51W ALONG 28N59W TO 28N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A REMNANT 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W TO 30N43W WHERE 
IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N51W TO N 
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E 
ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180/210 NM E OF THE 
FRONT N OF 25N. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC 
ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL MOVE E TODAY THROUGH THU WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS W 
ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO NW CUBA THU AND FROM NEAR 32N60W 
TO E CUBA FRI BEFORE STALLING THROUGH SAT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW