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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 032350
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 11N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGING FROM 12 
TO 16 FT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 
24W/25W FROM 05N TO 16N...MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW 
IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATELY MOIST 
ENVIRONMENT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN AIR N OF 
12N ALONG THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 
10N E OF 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 41W 
FROM 04N TO 13W...MOVING W AT 5 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY INDICATES 
THAT THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. 
METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATES A SAHARAN AIR LAYER N OF 10N 
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
07N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 67W/68W 
S OF 17N...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE WITH 
METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY INDICATING SAHARAN AIR N OF 12N WHICH 
IS INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA 
NEAR 11N16W TO 08N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 07N26W AND CONTINUES 
TO 08N40W...RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N43W TO 
NORTHERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 04N51W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS 
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FL WEST COAST. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE 
TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN 
GULF E OF 91W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM 
24N97W TO 18N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N84W 
IS A WESTERN EXTENSION OF BROAD SURFACE RIDGING THAT EXTENDS 
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. LIGHT 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 
TO 15 KT COVER THE WESTERN GULF. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US MAY BRING AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ON SATURDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE 
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE SEE 
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE 
IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS S OF 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE 
PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 13 FEET. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE 
SUPPORTING A CONVECTION FREE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. EXPECT 
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                               

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND... 
HINDERING CONVECTION AND SUPPORTING HAZY CONDITIONS. SIMILAR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...     

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE 
EASTERN GULF AND AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N70W SUPPORTS 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 77W AND 
SOUTH FL. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED 
BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 25N47W COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL ATLC BASIN. TWO WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM 
OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE WESTERNMOST 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO 26N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE EASTERNMOST 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N45W TO 23N45W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITH THIS TROUGH. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL 
NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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Page last modified: Friday, 03-Jul-2015 23:50:27 UTC