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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011145
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
705 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... 

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 
10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 04N08W SW TO 01N11W TO 01S17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 04S27W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 01S TO 
01N BETWEEN 07W AND 12W AND FROM 08S TO 01N BETWEEN 21W AND 33W. 
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01S 
TO 03N W OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...           

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERS...ONE OVER THE NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK BAY AND ANOTHER 
OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND 
EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING EASTERLY TO 
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT E OF 95W. OVER THE FAR 
WESTERN GULF...A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N96W FROM 
WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 24N94W TO 18N94W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N96W SW TO 
THE NE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 23N97W. MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL 
MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MOIST AIR 
ADVECTION FROM THE SW N ATLC BY SURFACE EASTERLY FLOW SUPPORT 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 
26N. THE GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES INDICATE MEDIUM TO HIGH FOG 
PROBABILITIES W OF 93W AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W. 
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTLINE VERIFY 
FOG CONDITIONS N OF 25N W. THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE ARE 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH 
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RIDGING WILL 
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...    

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
BASIN...THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. HOWEVER...NO 
DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR 
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 
25 KT DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING 
TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 
ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT 
WATERS THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF  
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS AIRMASS 
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDS INTO 
THE SW N ATLC AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N63W SW TO 28N69W TO 
26N75W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITHIN 150 NM 
AHEAD OF IT. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB 
CENTER NEAR 34N24W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR 
WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS 
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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NR