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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 232337
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH 
A SQUALL LINE FROM 31N86W TO 27N97W. GALE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 24/00Z AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NE 
GULF. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN 
TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT 
IN THE SW GULF. SEE THE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W 
TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N32W TO 4N46W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 18W-36W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE 
NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM ARIZONA TO 
OKLAHOMA AND CONNECTED TO A 993 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 37N96W. 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
LOCATED FROM 30N89W TO 25N93W. TO THE E...THE COMBINATION OF THE 
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND LOW AND THE DEEP MOISTURE 
MOVING INTO THE N GULF IS SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE LOCATED FROM 
31N86W TO 27N87W. GALE FORCE WINDS ACCOMPANY THIS SQUALL LINE 
AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 83W-86W. 
FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION 
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 26N...10-15 KT 
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE 
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO THE S GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SQUALL LINE TO EXIT THE BASIN WHILE 
DISSIPATING. THE COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE U.S. WILL ENTER 
THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 
18N82W. DRY AIR AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE IS 
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH NO CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED TO IT. TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE 
TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. 
ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA... 

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER IS 
PREVAILING. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND 
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.  

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. A 995 MB LOW IS 
LOCATED NEAR 33N91W EXTENDING ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FROM 
THAT POINT INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR 26N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS N OF THIS BOUNDARY N OF 30N BETWEEN 72W-79W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N70W TO 28N47W. FROM THAT 
POINT ON...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT INTO THE NE 
ATLANTIC NEAR 42N24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT 
WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY N OF 32N. TO THE N OF 
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN N OF 28N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT 
FOR THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN. THE WARM 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Nov-2014 23:37:19 UTC