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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 092332
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN MAR 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N47W TO 25N57W TO THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W. N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 46W...SW WINDS 25 
TO 35 KT WITH SEAS 9 TO 14 FT ARE OCCURRING. N OF 29N W OF FRONT 
TO 57W...W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 12 TO 15 FT EXIST.  
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS 
EXIST WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 27N. THE FRONT NORTH OF 
25N WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION 
BECOMES STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED SCATTERED 
SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR NORTH OF 23N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF 
23N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT.  PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 
1N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 1N32W.  NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST 
WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH/ITCZ EAST OF 28W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS SOUTH OF WEST 
AFRICA EAST OF 0W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COMPLEX SYSTEM OF FRONTS AND A TROUGH EXISTS 
WITHIN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  A COOL AIR MASS 
HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN EAST COAST TODAY AND 
THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W.  
WINDS...BEING ENHANCED BY THE HIGH MEXICAN TOPOGRAPHY...ARE 
NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WEST OF THE FRONT.  NORTH OF 25N...THE FRONT 
HAS BECOME STATIONARY AND EXTENDS CURRENTLY FROM 25N95W TO THE 
TEXAS-LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N94W.  A WARM FRONT ALSO BEGINS AT 
THE 25N95W INTERSECTION AND EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N88W.  A WEAK LOW MAY BE 
DEVELOPING NEAR THIS INTERSECTION POINT.  NORTH OF THE WARM 
FRONT...15-25 KT NORTHEAST WINDS EXIST...WHILE SOUTH OF THE WARM 
FRONT WINDS ARE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15-25 KT.  FINALLY...A 
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO...WHICH WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT 
SEVERAL HOURS.  SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT 
AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN THE NW HALF OF THE 
GULF.  THE SURFACE FRONTS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE SUPPORTED 
BY A VIGOROUS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US 
WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY...SHUTTING OFF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  A WEAK LOW ALONG WITH THE WARM 
FRONT SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY NORTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING IN A 
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STRONG POSSIBILITY OF 
CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE MEXICAN...TEXAS... 
AND LOUISIANA COASTS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES EXIST TODAY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE 
ONLY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
FORMING OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA... 
AND HONDURAS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER 
JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO...IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC WHICH REACHES 
HISPANIOLA. SURFACE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN ARE WEAKER 
THAN TYPICAL...10-20 KT EASTERLIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15-25 
KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS WEAK.  LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED IN WINDS OR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...HISPANIOLA...

WHILE NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXISTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OCCURRING OVER HISPANIOLA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT OVER 
THE ATLANTIC WHICH REACHES HISPANIOLA.  WINDS ALONG THE NORTH-
FACING COASTS OF HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE 
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE 
ISLAND HAS TYPICAL TRADEWIND EASTERLIES INTERACTING WITH THE 
DIURNAL SEA-LAND BREEZES.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS OR 
RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT DOMINATES THE CONDITIONS 
AS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE.  FARTHER TO THE 
EAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N14W NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS 
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 25N37W.  FROM THERE...THE FRONT IS STATIONARY 
AND EXTENDS TO 32N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE FRONTS. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS 1004 MB 
LOW AT 36N19W NORTH OF OUR AREA...WHICH IS PRODUCING STORM FORCE 
WINDS JUST EAST OF THE AZORES.  NORTHERLIES UP TO 25 KT ARE 
BEHIND THE FRONT IN OUR AREA. THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE 
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BE CENTERED NEAR 28N16W OVER THE CANARY 
ISLANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...IT SHOULD WEAKEN 
CONSIDERABLY BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTION AND WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA