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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301735
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC GALE IS FORECAST AT 0000 UTC 31 JAN TO BE N OF 30N 
WITHIN 120 NM E OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N71W TO 26N80W. THE 
GALE IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER 0600 UTC. SEE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
INFORMATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 
1N30W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S46W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 30N-41W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N84W TO THE CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO AT 28N90W TO S TEXAS AT 27N97W. 15-25 KT 
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT IS 
MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE 
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO W OF 95W AND S OF 24N. MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE S OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE 
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA SUPPORTING THE COLD 
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
WITH AXIS ALONG 100W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 27N...AND 
OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND 
FROM S FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. THE FRONT MAY WELL 
REMAIN VOID OF PRECIPITATION. ALSO EXPECT COLD AIR ADVECTION 
TO BE PREVALENT OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF NE HONDURAS...AND S OF 
JAMAICA. MORE SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON PUERTO RICO RADAR OVER THE 
ISLAND. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING WITH WSW FLOW IS 
OVER THE AREA WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO BE ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS... 
NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA.   

...HISPANIOLA... 

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE 
TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY OVER THE MONA 
PASSAGE. THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND HAS FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE N 
COAST OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL HOWEVER 
SUPPRESS THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA MOVING E. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A GALE IS FORECAST FOR AN 
AREA OVER THE W ATLANTIC ON 0000 UTC 31 JAN. SEE ABOVE. ANOTHER  
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVING E FROM 32N54W TO 
24N60W TO 20N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
E OF FRONT N OF 24N. A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES 
AT 38N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W N OF 24N SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONTS. AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N37W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 33W-36W. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH 
SHOWERS OR CONVECTION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA