Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 170532

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1232 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
09N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
09N21N to 03N23W to 01N27W to 01N33W to the Equator near 40W.
Isolated moderate convection is S of 06N between 10W-24W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is S of 05N between 26W-38W.


A middle to upper level ridge prevails over the Gulf basin this
evening with axis extending from over the Yucatan peninsula along
90W northward to over the lower Mississippi River valley.
Primarily southwesterly flow aloft is noted on the western
periphery of the ridge with scattered cloudiness and isolated
showers occurring across the far NW Gulf waters focused along a
stationary front analyzed across eastern Texas to NE Mexico near
24N99W. Otherwise...surface ridging prevails with moderate to
fresh E-SE winds expected through Wednesday.

Overall tranquil conditions persist across the Caribbean basin
this evening as water vapor imagery indicates broad middle to
upper level troughing and dry air aloft. Latest scatterometer 
data depicts generally moderate to fresh trades across the basin
with slightly stronger winds remaining within close proximity to
the coast of Colombia between 72W-77W. Satellite imagery shows 
isolated trade wind showers across the eastern portion of the
basin while widely scattered showers are across Honduras and
Nicaragua...including the adjacent coastal waters from 11N-18N
between 81W-88W. Similar weather conditions are forecast through 
Friday as surface ridging remains anchored across the SW North
Atlc region.

Fresh NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal 
waters this evening. Winds will diminish slightly on Wednesday as
the ridging to the N weakens. Isolated showers are forecast to 
continue through Wednesday while the NE flow persists.

A broad surface high centered across the Delmarva near 38N76W
extends influence across much of the SW North Atlc generally W of
60W. A slight weakness in the ridging is evident as a cold front
enters the discussion area near 32N45W and extends SW to 29N50W to
26N62W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 90 nm
either side of the front E of 48W. Isolated showers are occurring
elsewhere within 120 nm either side of the front W of 48W. Farther
east...another dissipating frontal boundary extends from 32N28W 
to 25N32W. Finally...SE of the Windward Islands...a surface 
trough analyzed from 05N57W to 12N55W is providing focus for 
scattered showers and isolated tstms from 03N-12N between 50W- 

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jan-2017 05:33:06 UTC