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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 221037
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

METEO FRANCE HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR ZONE AGADIR ALONG THE 
COAST OF MOROCCO...AND FOR ZONE CANARIAS IN BETWEEN ISLANDS. 
BEAUFORT 7 OR 32KT-38KT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR BOTH ZONES. THE 
GALE IS DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1036 
MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES AND A 1012 MB ISOBAR OVER MOROCCO 
PRODUCING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE AFRICAN EXTENDING FROM 11N21W TO 
3N21W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE WHILE A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND 
DUST IS N OF THE WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 6N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 5N22W AND 
CONTINUES TO 6N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF AFRICA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 2W-8W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 8W-
17W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 24W-38W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                       

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 29N81W TO THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 29N86W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO NEAR 
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AT 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 25N-29N 
BETWEEN 93W-97W. A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE E 
GULF S OF FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
FROM 20N89W TO 15N94W. 20 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY 
OF CAMPECHE E OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF HAS 10-15 KT E 
SURFACE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS OVER MEXICO AND THE W GULF FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 97W-103W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY 
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS PRESENTLY VOID OF ANY IFR FOG OR 
STRATUS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS WEAK RIDGING WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER 
AIR MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER 
THE E GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT AND 
SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N73W. 10-30 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG 
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE S COAST OF 
CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE LOCATED OVER NW VENEZUELA... N COLOMBIA...PANAMA 
...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 80W-
84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 19N-
20N BETWEEN 74W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO LINGER OVER 
HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE 
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA HAS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORM AGAIN FRI ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 67W-
70W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N52W. A 1035 
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N30W WITH SURFACE RIDGING 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 45W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER 
A SMALL AREA ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 10W-
12W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN 
ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N66W. ANOTHER 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
35N42W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE W 
ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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Page last modified: Friday, 22-May-2015 10:37:43 UTC