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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 182359
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

AS OF 18/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 
39.9N 41.3W OR ABOUT 591 NM WNW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN 
AZORES MOVING E AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND 
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON 
FRIDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
37N-43N BETWEEN 35W-42W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 18N18W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N20W MOVING W AT 
10-15 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA 
FROM 4N-18N BETWEEN 10W-27W. FURTHER N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY 
SHOWS BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 18N E OF 35W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 13W-22W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 19N44W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N45W TO 
10N46W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA FROM 6N-22N BETWEEN 35W-49W. FURTHER 
N...METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 22N 
BETWEEN 35W-60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-
12N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 21N66W TO 10N66W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCED 
AT UPPER LEVELS BY A LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N65W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 19N BETWEEN 63W-66W. ELSEWHERE... 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N20W TO 8N32W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
8N32W TO 11N42W AND CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N48W TO 
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION 
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50W-54W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...  

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA 
NEAR 27N80W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. 
FURTHER W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF 
FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 90W-97W.  MOREOVER...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W CUBA AND THE NE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS..AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER N MEXICO WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE ENTIRE GULF 
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH RESIDUAL 
CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...         

A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING TRADES OF 5-15 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS 
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER NW VENEZUELA... N COLOMBIA 
...THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER E 
CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF JAMAICA NEAR 
17N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER 
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS... NICARAGUA...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN S 
OF 16N W OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ADVECTS OVER 
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                             

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER 
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI DUE TO 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING...AND A TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

HURRICANE EDOUARD AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE THE MAIN FEATURES 
ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTIONS ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO S FLORIDA AT 27N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N33W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO 
RICO NEAR 23N65W. SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 61W-66W...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 57W-62W. 
EXPECT A COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO BE OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INCREASED CONVECTION. ALSO 
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE TO 
PRODUCE CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Sep-2014 23:59:13 UTC