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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 020559
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
205 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 30 HOURS...BASED ON THE  
FORECAST FOR 02/0000 UTC...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA... 
FROM 11.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE 
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE 
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 12N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 1014 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 
38W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 10N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 9N TO 
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR 
TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 19N 
SOUTHWARD...PASSING BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...MOVING WESTWARD 
20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS 
THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER 
LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE 
FROM 13N TO 16N. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF AN 
ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE 
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. 

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM 18N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS CUTTING 
THROUGH HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA 
NEAR 20N13W TO 16N20W AND 9N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N34W 
TO 8N44W...INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND 
SURINAME...EVENTUALLY TO 5N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 11W AND 18W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN 
MEXICO NEAR 21N103W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES 
AWAY FROM MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO 
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE BASE OF 
A TROUGH ORIGINATES IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH STARTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... 
IT CROSSES NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND IT REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 
13N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EARLIER 
RAINSHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA HAVE WEAKENED AND 
DISSIPATED. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N91W 20N92W 18N92W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS 
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 28N86W...TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N. SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EVERYWHERE... 
EXCEPT NEAR THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF CUBA. 
THIS TROUGH IS PART OF THE ENERGY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
CURRENT 84W/85W TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE 
WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A 
TROUGH ALSO SPANS CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED 
MODERATE FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. 

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/ALSO IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 80W

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO 
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS 
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH 
THAT PASSES THROUGH A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 
600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY 
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND CUBA. 

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND 
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS 
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL 
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST JUST ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PUSH 
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL 
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT MORE THAN ONE INVERTED TROUGH 
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD.   
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W...TO 
A 24N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 
15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
THAT WAS OCCURRING INLAND IN HISPANIOLA HAS WEAKENED AND 
DISSIPATED. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 54W AND 
77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. 

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N48W 28N52W 25N57W. A MIDDLE LEVEL 
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N42W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 32W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 34N50W...THROUGH 32N59W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE 
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Jul-2015 06:00:05 UTC