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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

AS OF 19/0300 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR
39.9N 39.2W OR ABOUT 494 NM W-NW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN 
AZORES MOVING E AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY FRIDAY 
NIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 36N-42N BETWEEN 33W-
38W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 18N18W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N20W...WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE IS MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT. 
METEOSAT RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOW THICK HIGH CLOUDS N OF THE LOW 
AND NE OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE STRONG CONVECTION AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. WARM...MOIST AIR AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS IS 
NOTED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW WHILE SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST 
CONTINUES TO ENGULF THE N-NW WAVE ENVIRONMENT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 19N45W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 15N46W TO 10N47W
...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. THE GOES-R RGB AIRMASS PRODUCT INDICATE 
A MOIST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WAVE ENVIRONMENT EXCEPT NW OF THE 
LOW WHERE DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT...ALSO DEPICTED IN METEOSAT 
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY. LITTLE TO NONE DUST IS DEPICTED IN THE 
GOES-R DUST PRODUCT IN THIS REGION OF DRY AIR. STRONG DEEP LAYER 
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS 
LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 
42W-51W AND FROM 15N-18N WITHIN 250 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 21N65W TO 10N66W...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. MOSTLY 
MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-
68W. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING 
CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N19W TO 7N30W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
7N31W TO 10N43W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 10N50W TO 
7N58W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE 
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 
50W-57W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...  

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ACROSS THE GULF BEING 
INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS 
THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W HAS ITS BASE REACHING 
THE EASTERN GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC. THIS 
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN 
FLORIDA WESTWARD TO A 1012 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS SOUTHERN 
FLORIDA TO 24N85W IN THE SE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS 
THE EASTERN GULF AND IN THE NW BASIN N OF 25N. SURFACE 
TROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF ALONG ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL FUEL RAINSHOWERS 
ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...         

EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A PORTION OF THE NW 
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES IN 
THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
IN THE WESTERN BASIN GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH W OF 80W 
AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA 
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 17N W OF 78W. A TROPICAL 
WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING 
HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-68W. SEE THE TROPICAL 
WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...STRONG DEEP LAYER 
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPRESS 
CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA ON SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...                                             

EXCEPT FOR SW HAITI WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
NOTED...THE REMAINDER ISLAND IS CLOUDY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO 
RICO WILL INCREASE SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AS IT 
CONTINUES IT WESTWARD PATH TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN 
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS 
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A 
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 69W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED 
BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N73W TO 26N80W TO THE SE GULF. 
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE 
RIDGE WHICH ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWARD SUPPORT SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE THE 
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE 
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Sep-2014 06:04:57 UTC