245 AXNT20 KNHC 031645 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jul 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been added in the E Atlantic, along 20W from 21N southward with a 1012 mb low embedded near 18N20W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-11N east of 23W. Another tropical wave has an axis along 32W in the E Atlantic, from 18N southward, moving W at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-09N between 29W-34W. A third tropical wave is along 55W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N-13N between 50W-60W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 20N, moving westward at near 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N17W and continues west-southwest to a 1012 mb low/tropical wave near 18N20W, then southwestward to 08N36W. The ITCZ extends from 08N37W to 10N52W, where it breaks for a tropical wave, then continues from 09N56W to near 08N61W into coastal Guyana. No additional convection is noted beyond that associated with the tropical waves. The E Pacific monsoon trough extends from 09N83W over the coast of Panama to a 1010 mb low near 10N76W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the SW Caribbean south of 11N west of 76W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... As of 1500 UTC, a surface trough is along the SW Florida coast from 27N82W to 25N81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N-27W east of 85W. A second surface trough in the NE Gulf extends from the FL panhandle near 30N84W to 28N87W. A weak 1018 mb high is centered at 27N91W, which is contributing - away from the thunderstorms - to only gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas over the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface trough in the NE Gulf will persist Fri into Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along this trough over the waters near Florida through the weekend. Weak high pressure will then prevail into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more details. The Bermuda High north of the region combined with a 1010 mb Colombian Low near 10N76W is forcing fresh to near gale trade over the S central Caribbean this morning with seas 6-11 ft. Elsewhere, trades are gentle to moderate with seas 2-5 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the SW Caribbean south of 11N west of 76W, associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure across NW Colombia and the SW Caribbean will support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central basin through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information. A weak 1025 mb Bermuda High centered near 31N53W along with lower pressure with the ITCZ/monsoon trough is producing only gentle to fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic waters. The only except is fresh to strong NE winds between the Canary Islands and along coastal Western Sahara. Seas are 7-9 ft north of 20N east of 30W in NE swell. Elsewhere, seas are 3-6 ft. A surface trough extending from 25N55W to 20N61W is producing scattered moderate convection from 20N-25N between 57W-63W. For the forecast west of 55W, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast. There is a low chance of tropical formation within the next two days, and a medium chance through the next 7 days. $$ Landsea
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Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Jul-2025 22:52:58 UTC